FORT COLLINS, Colo. (KLFY) — Researchers at Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science have revised their forecast of the 2023 hurricane season, upgrading it from “near-average” to “above-average” in a report released Thursday.
The researchers estimate the probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the United States to be above the long-term average.
“We have increased our forecast and now call for an above-average Atlantic basin hurricane season in 2023, although uncertainty with this outlook is larger than normal,” the report said.
The new forecast predicts 18 named storms this year, slightly above the average of 14.4 storms from 1991-2020, and 9 hurricanes, more than the average of 7.2 in the same time period. CSU’s previous report, released June 1, predicted 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes.
The report cited El Niño as part of its previous forecast, but said that warmer water in the gulf was the main reason for the predicted increase.
“El Niño increases vertical wind shear in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, but the extreme anomalous warmth in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic may counteract some of the typical El Niño-driven increase in vertical wind shear,” researchers said.
The report said that the data is far from conclusive, however.
“Researchers caution that there is more uncertainty than normal with this outlook because of conflicting signals between much warmer than normal Atlantic waters and an expected robust El Niño for the peak of the hurricane season,” the report said.
Read the full report below:
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