Hurricane Beryl lashing Jamaica as a Category 4. Interests in the western Gulf Coast should monitor.

NEW ORLEANS (WGNO) — Hurricane Beryl remains a strong Category 4 w/ 140mph winds. The system has bent, but not broken, under the presence of 20+kts of wind shear. Wind shear typically helps hinder storms, yet Beryl has yet to sizably weaken.

Significant, life-threatening impacts likely for Jamaica-Cayman Islands followed by the Yucatan of Mexico Thursday night-Friday.

Interests in the northwest Gulf Coast should remain vigilant & watch the forecast carefully, particularly in south Texas to northern Mexico.

Beyond Friday, there remains quite a spread in intensity & projected path.

From the National Hurricane Center “ There is still significant uncertainty in the long-term track forecast, as numerical models showing stronger storms in the Gulf of Mexico are generally on the northern side of the guidance envelope and weaker storms on the southern side.”

This ridge of high pressure looks to hold on long enough to act as a shield of protection for the east-central Gulf Coast. The concern level is *very low* at this point from Eastern Louisiana-Florida at this time.

If you’re watching from far western Louisiana to southeast Texas, concern is *low*, but we’re still monitoring for forecast changes.

From south Texas to northern Mexico, forecast is growing more likely for hurricane impacts Sunday-Monday. Model guidance is showing a more favorable environment for potential strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico. Always prepare for category above the forecast(currently Cat 1 projected near landfall just south of Brownsville.)

A stronger Beryl after crossing the Yucatan could be tugged more northwest towards Texas. A weaker Beryl would likely be steered more west between Tampico, MX and Brownsville, TX. Highest likelihood for sizeable impacts looks to be in south/central Texas-northern Mexico.

As always, remain vigilant & prepared & stay tuned with updates.

Behind #HurricaneBeryl, Invest 96L is showcasing a bit more convective life this morning after being squashed by Saharan Dust for the last few days. National Hurricane Center is presently giving a 20% chance of formation within the next 7 days.

This disturbance may find a more favorable environment in the western Caribbean/western Gulf. The key will be if it can maintain distance from Beryl, as wind shear from Beryl’s outflow may tear this disturbance apart. Something to watch.

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