MILWAUKEE — Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) on Wednesday said his “goal” is for Republicans to pick up more than 10 House seats in November, underscoring the optimistic outlook the GOP has in the lead-up to Election Day.
The comment — made during an interview with The Hill at the Republican National Convention — comes as former President Trump leads in key polls, President Biden’s approval rating remains underwater, and voters continue to raise alarm about issues like immigration and the economy, which have been weak spots for the incumbent.
Johnson, however, was careful to not make a prediction for the GOP’s gains in November. Asked if he expects Republicans to pick up more than 10 seats this year, he demurred.
“It’s my goal,” the Speaker said after a short pause. “We’re very wary of setting benchmarks and making projections, but I’ll tell you, we’re very encouraged and very bullish about November.”
“I’m traveling the country nonstop, 144 cities and 31 states now, we feel very good about where we are,” he continued. “No matter where we are in the country there’s a real demographic shift and a lot of energy on our side. I think it’s gonna be a good November for us.”
Johnson noted, though, that any gains in November would be a cause for celebration, as Republicans have grappled with a razor-thin margin throughout this Congress.
“I’ve had a one-vote margin, so anything larger than that would be exciting for me,” he said.
Democrats had been bullish about retaking the House majority after a Congress that has been marked by GOP chaos. Democratic lawmakers frequently cite the protracted Speaker’s race last January, the three weeks of paralysis following former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) ouster, and several failed floor votes when discussing the November election.
But that confidence hit some headwinds after a disastrous debate performance by President Biden left many Democrats concerned he could be a drag on candidates down the ticket.
According to Decision Desk HQ, Republicans have a 61 percent chance of winning the House in November.
Still, Democrats are projecting optimism even as the party weighs removing Biden from the top of the ticket.
“House Democrats will win back control of the House of Representatives on November 5th and vacate the extreme MAGA Republican majority — as long as we are able to clearly communicate our agenda,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said earlier this month.
2025 priorities
Johnson spoke with The Hill in Milwaukee, Wis., where Republicans from across the country are gathered for the quadrennial meeting that will culminate with Trump officially becoming the party’s 2024 nominee.
Republicans this week, and in recent months, have discussed the prospects of securing a trifecta next year — control of the House, Senate and White House — with GOP lawmakers eager to use the obscure procedure known as budget reconciliation, which would make it easier to enact priorities that are opposed by Democrats.
One matter that has been touted is extending the tax cuts enacted under Trump in 2017, which are set to expire next year. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), during remarks on the convention stage Tuesday, vowed that Republicans would make the tax cuts permanent within the first 100 days of Republican control.
Johnson on Wednesday emphasized that extending the tax cuts is a key priority, but would not say if the matter will receive the coveted HR 1 designation — which is used to signify the House majority’s most pressing matter — noting that the agenda is still being determined.
“We haven’t determined it yet but it’s certainly a top priority,” Johnson said when asked if the tax cuts will be HR 1. “If not, we’re gonna have the largest increase in American history all at once in 2025. So we’ve got to fix that, regulatory reform and many other things.”
“We’re just deciding the final agenda,” he added.
Ukraine and JD Vance
Another issue the next Congress will almost certainly have to deal with is whether to send additional aid to Ukraine. And the most notable moment from the convention thus far has been Trump picking Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) — a vehement opponent of such aid — as his running mate.
His selection of Vance is driving questions about what policy would look like under a second Trump administration, especially when it comes to additional aid for Ukraine. Vance said in 2022 that “I don’t care what happens to Ukraine one way or the other.”
Johnson, however, brushed aside any concerns about moving Ukraine aid under a Trump-Vance administration.
“I think all those decisions are so premature,” he said when asked about the future of Ukraine aid. “I respect JD, we’ve become good friends, had a great visit with him, he’s a very intelligent, very thoughtful member, and I think he’ll bring a lot to the ticket. I’m excited to work with him.”
Johnson earlier this year helped shepherd through a roughly $61 billion aid package for Ukraine, pushing for the legislation despite GOP opposition in an effort that helped spark a failed threat to his gavel.
The Louisiana Republican, amid the debate over foreign aid, had discussed his evolution on the matter, transitioning from a Ukraine aid skeptic to a supporter who put his job on the line to muscle through the money. He referenced briefings he began to receive as Speaker.
“I think providing lethal aid to Ukraine right now is critically important,” Johnson said before the vote in April. “I really do believe the intel and the briefings that we’ve gotten … I believe Xi and Vladimir Putin and Iran really are an axis of evil. I think they’re in coordination on this. I think Vladimir Putin would continue to march through Europe if he were allowed.”
Asked if he expected Vance to have the same change of thought if he wins the vice presidency and sees more briefings, the Speaker responded: “I don’t know.”
‘A wartime Speaker’
Johnson has been an active figure in this year’s convention, securing a prime-time speaking slot on Tuesday and sitting with Trump in his suite in the convention hall Monday night during his first public appearance after the shooting at his rally over the weekend.
The appearances are another sign of the rapid rise the Louisiana Republican has had in the GOP conference — and Republican Party — over the past nine months, moving from the vice chairof the conference to the Speaker of the House.
Reflecting on that ascension in Milwaukee, Johnson cited the current moment of American history and politics.
“I’m very sober-minded about where we are as a country and what our responsibility is in the Congress,” Johnson said. “People ask me all the time if I’m having fun, I really am very much a wartime Speaker. That’s how I see the job.”
“So every day it’s about duty and responsibility and there hasn’t been any leisure at all, right. I know the moment that we’re in, historically, and I feel the weight of that history,” he continued. “And, you know, I’m just humbled to be a small part of what we’re gonna do to, I think, save the republic. And so that’s an exciting thing.”