NEW ORLEANS (WGNO) — Hurricane Beryl is now a Category 5 with 160mph winds. This is the earliest Category 5 in record keeping in the Atlantic Basin, surpassing the record set by Emily in 2005 by over two weeks (July 17, 2005).
Model forecasts are generally showing some weakening of Beryl in the Central Caribbean as wind shear begins to increase Tuesday-Wednesday. Regardless, residents in Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Yucatán of Mexico & Belize should be preparing for potentially significant hurricane impacts by mid-late week.
A lot to be desired with the track of Hurricane #Beryl beyond Thursday. If I’m watching from Texas or even Louisiana, the threat level still appears *low*; but model guidance showcases why we can’t discount a scenario where this system brings impacts to the Northwest Gulf Coast late weekend-early next week.
How strong or weak the system trends in the western Caribbean & where the system enters the Yucatán/Belize will also be pivotal to the systems ability to regain any organization into the Gulf as well.
Scenario 1: If Beryl weakens sizably in the Caribbean & high pressure remains strong to the north along the north Gulf Coast, Beryl is likely to be steered west into Belize/Yucatan and then into the Bay of Campeche & north Mexico/Deep South Texas. This scenario would cause zero concerns for northern Gulf Coast. This scenario appears more probable at this time.
Scenario 2: If Beryl maintains a higher intensity & the ridge of high pressure begins to break down and shift east, the steering pattern could point towards a more northwest track that would require more attention along the Northwest Gulf by late this weekend/early next week.
No need to overly concern yourself at this time as model guidance gets the windshield wiper effect over the next few days.
As always, remain vigilant and prepared and stay tuned with updates.
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