The first weekend of March basketball is in the books, which means the countdown to Selection Sunday is on. Conference tournaments in some smaller mid-major men’s leagues get started this week, while power conferences are wrapping up the regular season. Here’s an updated look at the bubble picture as teams make their final auditions to the selection committee, plus breakdowns of what most of the bubble needs to do to ensure they hear their name called in two weeks. 

Updated Bubble Picture 

Last Four Byes: 

Georgia Bulldogs
Baylor Bears
San Diego State Aztecs
Indiana Hoosiers

Last Four In: 

Ohio State Buckeyes
Oklahoma Sooners
Xavier Musketeers
Arkansas Razorbacks

First Four Out: 

North Carolina Tar Heels
Boise State Broncos
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Texas Longhorns

Next Four Out: 

Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Cincinnati Bearcats
Colorado State Rams
SMU Mustangs

Full Bubble Breakdown

ACC 

Safe: Duke Blue Devils, Clemson Tigers, Louisville Cardinals

Out: North Carolina Tar Heels, Wake Forest Demon Deacons, SMU Mustangs

Other recent bubble carnage has helped North Carolina as the Tar Heels have ripped off five straight wins against a weak part of their ACC schedule. The 1–10 mark against Quad 1 opponents is still an eyesore though, as is the Heels’ home loss to Stanford. Beating Duke on Saturday would punch UNC’s ticket, but without that win UNC will likely need at least one win of substance in the ACC tournament to have a strong chance. 

SMU’s candidacy became less serious after losing at Stanford. The Mustangs may have strong metrics, but the body of work is so soft overall. It’d take multiple substantive wins in the ACC tournament to get in. Wake Forest righted the ship some with a win over Notre Dame, but the damage has been done to the Deacs’ résumé already. Beating Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium would put them in, but Wake Forest is a massive underdog in that game. Without a win there, they’d need to find a way to move the needle in the ACC tournament.

Big East 

Safe: St. John’s Red Storm, Marquette Golden Eagles, UConn Huskies, Creighton Bluejays

In: Xavier Musketeers

The Big East’s hopes of a fifth NCAA tournament bid were boosted by Xavier comfortably handling Creighton on Saturday. The 22-point win was the latest strong result for a Musketeers team that has quietly surged into the thick of bubble conversations. There’s little spectacular about this résumé, though the true road win at Marquette is a nice feather in the cap. For now, Xavier has to hope that solid metrics across the board and no bad losses will be enough to get them in. Win these next two (Butler on Wednesday, Providence on Saturday) and Xavier will enter the Big East tournament in solid shape. 

Big Ten

Safe: Michigan State Spartans, Michigan Wolverines, Wisconsin Badgers, Purdue Boilermakers, Maryland Terrapins, UCLA Bruins, Illinois Fighting Illini, Oregon Ducks

In: Indiana Hoosiers, Ohio State Buckeyes

Out: Nebraska Cornhuskers

One of the more damaging bubble results anywhere this weekend belonged to Nebraska, which lost a Quad 3 home game to Minnesota in heartbreaking fashion Saturday. The Cornhuskers have now lost four of five and are in serious trouble, with a pair of Quad 3 losses and poor quality metrics both weighing them down. Meanwhile, Indiana held serve and won at lowly Washington to slowly boost its stock, while Ohio State had the weekend off after spending last week on its Los Angeles trip.

The good and bad news for the Big Ten is that its bubble teams play one another this week; first Nebraska taking on Ohio State in Columbus, Ohio, then Ohio State heading to Bloomington, Ind., to face Indiana. Those games could provide some clarity … or muddy the waters even more. If I’m handicapping, I think I feel best about Indiana’s hopes, crazy as that would’ve sounded a few weeks ago. There’s likely not room for all three of these teams in the field. 

Big 12

Safe: Houston Cougars, Texas Tech Red Raiders, Arizona Wildcats, Iowa State Cyclones, BYU Cougars, Kansas Jayhawks

In: Baylor Bears, West Virginia Mountaineers

Out: Cincinnati Bearcats

Nothing overly revelatory for the Big 12 bubble happened over the weekend. Baylor looked shaky against Oklahoma State, but found a way to hold on in what was essentially a must-win game. The Bears stay in the field for now, but Tuesday’s road test at TCU looms large. Lose that one, and Baylor may need a conference tournament win to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday. West Virginia wasn’t expected to win at BYU, but getting blown out didn’t help the Mountaineers’ already-shaky quality metrics. They’re another team that’s likely just one win away from punching its ticket despite not looking great of late. Meanwhile, Cincinnati battled well at Houston but never seriously threatened. It will take a long Big 12 tournament run to play their way in.

SEC 

Safe: Auburn Tigers, Florida Gators, Alabama Crimson Tide, Tennessee Volunteers, Missouri Tigers, Texas A&M Aggies, Ole Miss Rebels, Kentucky Wildcats, Mississippi State Bulldogs, Vanderbilt Commodores

In: Georgia Bulldogs, Arkansas Razorbacks, Oklahoma Sooners

Out: Texas Longhorns

Vanderbilt moved into lock status over the last week with wins over Texas A&M and Missouri. That leaves four teams on the SEC bubble, all of whom are at least four games under .500 in conference play. 

Best positioned of the group now is Georgia after a transformational week, upsetting Florida on Tuesday before destroying Texas in Austin on Saturday. With wins over Florida, St. John’s and Kentucky and top-40 metrics averages for both résumé and quality metrics, the Bulldogs are close to their first bid since 2015. One more win should do the trick. 

Headed in the opposite direction is Texas, which has now lost six of seven. Combine a 5–11 SEC mark with an ugly nonconference schedule ranked No. 290 nationally, and the path looks increasingly bleak. Without a deep SEC tournament run, winning at Mississippi State on Tuesday feels like a must. 

That leaves Arkansas and Oklahoma, who are as bubbly as they come. Neither helped their cause over the weekend, with Arkansas blown out by South Carolina and Oklahoma coming up just short of a massive win at Ole Miss. As things stand today, I see the Oklahoma résumé as slightly stronger than the Arkansas ledger, but the margins are incredibly tight. The path for both is the same: Two wins this week and they’ll be in good shape, one and they’ll be sweating buckets, zero and they’ll need to do serious work at the SEC tournament. 

Best of the Rest

In the Mountain West, Boise State and Colorado State are surging while San Diego State tries to hold onto a bid. Boise State is better positioned than CSU at the moment, though a Friday showdown between the two teams could be huge. A win there could elevate Boise State into the field or push CSU into serious consideration heading into the Mountain West tournament. Both teams also look like prime bid-stealer candidates by winning the conference tournament, just as New Mexico did last year. Meanwhile, SDSU will need to navigate a pair of tricky games this week at UNLV and at home against Nevada to fully lock up its bid. New Mexico and Utah State should be fine, though Utah State would be advised to not lose to Air Force and the Lobos would be best served to not lose out. 

VCU, UC San Diego and Drake have all benefited from bubble chaos around them while running up gaudy win-loss records. Drake completed the regular season at 27–3 by beating Missouri State on Sunday. It’d be best to avoid an ugly loss early in the MVC tournament, but the Bulldogs should be in regardless without a similar bid-stealer situation to the one we saw last year. VCU and UC San Diego each have a Quad 4 loss, but it feels like each could mostly lock up a bid by winning their final two regular-season games. All three are currently occupying automatic bids in our projections though, so slip-ups in the conference tournament that cause any of these teams to enter the at-large pool would have a pretty disruptive effect on the bubble. 

Other mid-major at-larges look less realistic. George Mason likely has to win the A-10 tournament to get in after losing to Duquesne on Saturday, and the path is similar through the WCC for Santa Clara and San Francisco after missed opportunities vs. Gonzaga this week. North Texas has been impressive, but its home loss to UTSA is likely too much of an eyesore. 


This article was originally published on www.si.com as Men’s Bubble Watch: Vanderbilt Gives SEC 10 Locks With Four Teams Still in the Hunt.