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In 72 hours, your team may look a little different.
But not as much as was the case in the past few years. For one specific reason.
“It’s a really bad group overall,” one AFC exec says of this year’s free-agent class.
NFL free agency is here, and I know that’s not how to get everyone fired up about the noon ET kickoff of the negotiating period Monday or the 4 p.m. ET start of the league year Wednesday. But it’s the reality facing every NFL team—getting better this offseason will require creativity and skill, and recon work way more than it will to simply open the owner’s checkbook and make a few guys filthy rich.
There’s a good reason for that. The cap dropped in 2021 as a result of COVID-19. Since, it’s gone from $182.5 million to $208.2 million in ’22, $208.2 million to $224.8 million in ’23, $224.8 million to $255.4 million in ’24, and has now increased from $255.4 million to $279.2 million. The four-year, $96.7 million jump is about the same as the 13-year jump in the cap from ’07 ($102.0 million) to ’20 ($198.2 million) before the COVID-19 hit was taken.
That’s incredible. Rapid growth has left teams with every resource they need to keep the players they want. Forget about just the quarterbacks. If you have a left tackle, receiver, corner, or pass rusher you want to retain, there’s almost no chance he gets to free agency. And if there’s even a hint, could it happen? He’ll be traded ahead of time.
So that leaves you with a “really bad group overall.”
But that doesn’t mean guys won’t get paid, or there won’t be hidden gems to find. It puts the onus on the coaches and scouts to dig out the difference-makers. Last year, the Washington Commanders did, using good scouting and intel through connections to turn over more than half the roster—just 19 players from the 2023 team were on the 53-man roster that coach Dan Quinn and GM Adam Peters brought to Philadelphia for the NFC championship game.
How can a team do that this year?
We’re going to try to sort through that for everyone this week.
In broad strokes, as would be the case in any given year, there are strengths and weaknesses to the 2025 free-agent class.
“Receiver is ridiculously weak—though that’s been supplemented with some veteran releases, so it’s gotten better [this week]. Tackle’s not very good, but guard’s O.K., center is O.K. And corner, safety and linebacker are all pretty good.”An AFC exec
“Receiver is ridiculously weak—though that’s been supplemented with some veteran releases, so it’s gotten better [this week],” says another AFC exec. “Tackle’s not very good, but guard’s O.K., center is O.K. And corner, safety and linebacker are all pretty good.”
There’s reason for that, too. The tag number for linebackers is based on pass-rusher contracts since some edge players are classified as outside linebackers rather than defensive ends. The tag number for centers and guards is based on offensive tackle contracts because offensive linemen are grouped together. And safeties, generally, have been devalued a bit, like off-ball linebackers and running backs.
So good players at those spots are always more likely to make it to the market.
And that brings us to this week’s backdrop—in an environment where teams have room to keep pretty much anyone they want—the question of why a player is available in the first place. It’s the question every team asks every player as they go through their free-agent meetings, and it’s one we’ll try to address with each of the guys we have identified here.
If there’s good reason, there can be logic to signing a player or players to significant deals, and subsequently, there can be a real path to using this week to build a better team.
With that established, who will get paid? Who are the bargains? Let’s dive in.
Who gets paid big money?
• Baltimore Ravens OT Ronnie Stanley’s market is robust—the Kansas City Chiefs, Commanders and New England Patriots are among the teams expected to make strong bids to take him from Baltimore, which is also in the mix to keep him. Stanley turns 31 next week, has missed 37 games from 2020 to ’23, before playing all 17 last year. But at his best, he’s a top-shelf left tackle, and there aren’t many of those, if any, in the draft this year, and there’s a big dropoff after him on the veteran market. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets $25 million per year.
• Philadelphia Eagles DT Milton Williams is poised to cash in off a great set of playoff games that ended in a Super Bowl championship. He isn’t for everyone, and there is some question on what he will look like when he doesn’t have some combination of Fletcher Cox, Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis in the rotation with him (that depth is part of why Philly hasn’t re-signed him). But teams such as New England and the Arizona Cardinals could push his market past the $20 million mark.
• Indianapolis Colts DE Dayo Odeyingbo’s a name we raised in last week’s Takeaways. A super-sized edge, some team betting on the 25-year-old’s rise with 15.5 career sacks could wind up having to pay close to $20 million per year for him. The Commanders, who are looking for edge rushers, might be a fit.
• There are a bunch of corners who’ll be in the $15 million range, and the New York Jets’ D.J. Reed is one to watch, who is rock solid, and can be a culture changer for some team—and even with seven years in the league, he’s still just 28. San Francisco’s Charvarius Ward, Minnesota’s Byron Murphy and Detroit’s Carlton Davis III should be in the ballpark of what Reed gets as well.
• With the Eagles’ Zack Baun off the market, Chiefs LB Nick Bolton is well-positioned to beat what Terrel Bernard got in Buffalo ($12.5 million APY) if not get to where Baun is ($17 million APY). Small-ish Jets LB Jamien Sherwood is getting a lot of love, too, as a new-age type of linebacker, who could get into Bernard’s range.
• With Tee Higgins tagged, the receiver market is full of older players and projections, and so Tampa Bay Buccaneers star Chris Godwin is another one who could get close to $20 million. He has mileage, and injury history (he’s coming off an ankle dislocation, and had a torn ACL and MCL a couple years ago), but he’s only 29, and is excellent from a football-character standpoint, giving him a good chance to come back strong.
• Miami Dolphins S Jevon Holland should top the safety market—he’s played in three different defensive systems (Vic Fangio, and offshoots of the Patriots and Ravens) and just turned 25 years old—and maybe get past $15 million per year. But don’t sleep on Minnesota’s Cam Bynum as a guy who could land a deal as big as Holland’s.
• San Francisco 49ers G Aaron Banks should benefit from the tagging of Chiefs G Trey Smith, and maybe be this year’s version of Robert Hunt, a solid interior lineman who cashes in big on the open market. Could he join Smith in Kansas City, if the Chiefs don’t land Stanley? Would Minnesota take a swing on him?
• While Aaron Rodgers is the biggest name, Sam Darnold probably gets the biggest deal on the quarterback market. The Minnesota Vikings would like him back. The Pittsburgh Steelers have interest. But after the Geno Smith trade, the Seahawks loom as the favorite to land him. We’ll have more on him in Monday’s Takeaways, but Seattle can offer what Minnesota would have a hard time giving him—the promise of being a multiyear starter on a Baker Mayfield-level deal (three years, $100 million).
Good but not great
• The Steelers have worked on getting a Justin Fields contract done, and this is one that’ll likely come down to money and opportunity. The Jets are lurking. Meanwhile, if Darnold leaves Minnesota, Daniel Jones could return there as insurance for J.J. McCarthy, who is coming back from a torn meniscus. But Jones could also wind up going to the Indianapolis Colts to compete with Anthony Richardson for the starting quarterback job.
• The San Francisco 49ers would like to keep Dre Greenlaw—but there’s some doubt they’ll be able to since he played well enough in limited action coming back from a torn Achilles to drum up a real market. Among the available linebackers, he has a pretty solid skill set, and is still just 27 years old coming off his second contract. He should land right around what Derrick Barnes got (three years, $25.5 million) in Detroit.
• On a receiver market chock full of older vets (Amari Cooper, Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins), there could be a premium on faster weapons. It was reflected in Tutu Atwell getting a one-year, $10 million deal for 2025 from the Los Angeles Rams, which floored other teams, and could foreshadow the New York Giants’ Darius Slayton getting a deal in the eight-figure-per-year range.
• A lot of the edge rushers come with injury caveats. Los Angeles Chargers castoff Joey Bosa has connections in places such as San Francisco (Nick Bosa/Gus Bradley), Washington (Anthony Lynn), New Orleans (Brandon Staley) and New England (Mike Vrabel), and there’s a thought that he could get close to $15 million on a one-year deal. The Chargers would like to retain his bookend Khalil Mack, but the cost will probably be similar to Bosa’s, and the Chicago Bears might look to bring him back. Super Bowl hero Josh Sweat is a fascinating case in that the knee condition that caused him to drop in the 2018 draft hasn’t cost him as many games as most expected but is still a concern (Arizona’s level of interest in him will be interesting).
• My sense is some teams will prefer Steelers OT Dan Moore Jr. to Minnesota’s Cam Robinson. He’s younger, and cleaner from a character standpoint. He also was criticized a bunch toward the end of the year—but Pittsburgh people will tell you that the handful of sacks he gave up were actually on Russell Wilson, not Moore himself. Either way, I think both of these guys get healthy deals around $15 million per year on the post-Stanley tackle market.
• Indy’s Will Fries could be another guard that surprises, with Smith tagged, and contending teams such as the Vikings and Houston Texans potentially looking to upgrade on the interior. And while we’re there, teams really like the Atlanta Falcons’ Drew Dalman atop the center market. He could, perhaps, be the last piece of Ryan Poles’s offensive line makeover in Chicago.
• Las Vegas Raiders S Tre’Von Moerhig is a guy who found his stride at the end of his rookie contract. Vegas DC Patrick Graham moved him closer to the line of scrimmage, and the former second-round pick got more effective. The move also created a vision for the team who gives him a deal that’ll probably land just below the Holland–Bynum level.
Best of the rest
• The running back market figures to be depressed—even in the year after the Eagles, Green Bay Packers and Ravens cashed in big on veteran signings at the position—in part because of the strength of the draft class. Pittsburgh’s Najee Harris is probably the biggest name out there, and his windfall could depend on how the Chargers (J.K. Dobbins), Dallas Cowboys (Rico Dowdle) and Vikings (Aaron Jones) handle their own free agents.
• Tight end is another spot where the draft class is going to hurt a mediocre crop, with Commanders tight end John Bates a sneaky value drawing interest.
• Commanders receiver Dyami Brown is a name some teams are looking at as a potential guy to bet on the future with—he’s never had more than the 308 yards receiving he had during the 2024 regular season, but the flashes he’s shown over four years finally became more consistent in the playoffs. The 25-year-old had 14 catches for 229 yards and a touchdown in Washington’s three postseason games.
• Teams will sniff around for the next version of Mayfield in 2023 or Darnold last year, so I’ll give you Denver’s Zach Wilson. A year under Sean Payton did him a lot of good, and the staff there really thinks, in the right situation, he could have a big bounceback year in ’25. His best bet might be to find a team with an iffy starter.
• If Pittsburgh hangs on to Fields, it’s hard to figure where Russell Wilson lands. And even in the scenario where Fields departs, and the Steelers can’t upset the apple cart with Darnold (I think that’ll be too rich for their blood), I could see Pittsburgh kicking the tires on Jones before going back down the road they traveled last year.
• Ravens OG Pat Mekari has struck a few folks I’ve talked to as someone being undervalued. He’s started 52 games over the past six years, and has logged hundreds of snaps at each of the five positions on the line, and played as a jumbo tight end as well. He’s only 27 years old. Baltimore letting him go now would be more of “can’t pay everyone” dynamic as anything, particularly if the Ravens can hang on to Stanley. So I figure someone can score here.
• Along those lines, it’s always hard to find bargains with the big guys. But James Hudson III is one to keep an eye on—he started 17 games over the past four years in Cleveland, was developed as a fourth-round pick by Bill Callahan, and is still just 25 years old. So he won’t break the bank but might get a nice deal to go start somewhere. And maybe a bigger one than former first-round pick Jedrick Wills Jr., once the Browns left tackle and now a free agent with a knee issue that’s hurting his value.
• I remember sitting with Raiders folks at camp last year, and hearing them rave about Malcolm Koonce, who, they thought, was about to have a massive year—most expected double-digit sacks after he turned a corner late in 2023 (he had six sacks in the Raiders’ final five games). Then, he tore his ACL in early September. As a result, he could be a potential bargain for a team that's willing to take on a little injury risk.
• Another guy who could sign a one-year deal with an eye on bigger things in 2026 would be Jaguars S Andre Cisco. He’s another one who’s played in a bunch of different systems, and different roles, and has a lot of talent that may still be mined in the right situation.
Trading places
Then, there’s the trade market.
Trey Hendrickson’s a name that, obviously, has been out there—I think it’ll take at least a second-round pick for the Bengals to move him. The Raiders have a couple names that have elicited phone calls, including tight end Michael Mayer and receiver Jakobi Meyers (if Vegas signs Tyler Lockett, maybe they’ll be open to the idea of trading Meyers). Niners RB Jordan Mason, a restricted free agent who probably gets a second-round tender from the team, is a name teams are monitoring for a potential trade as well. And on the quarterback market, rival teams have kept an eye on, and are keeping an eye on, contract talks between the New Orleans Saints and Derek Carr.
That, again, underscores the larger point made on this group as a whole, which is that it may take some creativity and outside-the-box thinking to “win” the offseason this year.
Which will also make it more difficult to assess, over the next week, who ends up as the big winners. Then, again, no one came out of last March proclaiming the Commanders the champions of the offseason. And, now, we can all see how that turned out.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL Free-Agency Forecast: ‘It’s a Really Bad Group Overall’.