As brackets get filled in by fans and perceived snubs settle in as motivation for teams, the madness is imminent for the women’s NCAA basketball tournament. With the First Four starting Wednesday and the round of 64 tipping off Friday morning, there’s little time left to wonder what’s in store for us for the next few weeks ahead of the final on April 6.
Who’s in danger? Who can sneak out of the shadows as a chaos agent? And, most importantly, who will be crowned champion? Our writers and editors make their predictions.
National Player of the Year pick
Baccellieri: JuJu Watkins, USC Trojans
For much of the year, my answer here was Hannah Hidalgo, whose lockdown defensive ability put her over the edge for me. But as the regular season came to a close, I found myself switching to Watkins. Yes, Hidalgo has been more efficient and consistent, but Watkins can do things on a court that no one else in college ball can right now. Her game has only gotten more well-rounded. The sophomore can defend, facilitate and, of course, score from anywhere. In the biggest moments—against opponents like UCLA—it’s Watkins who came up biggest for USC. She’s the core of why this group ended up as a No. 1 seed, and for the sheer variety of ways she can impact a game, she gets my vote for NPOY.
Brennan: JuJu Watkins, USC Trojans
There have been various frontrunners for Player of the Year throughout this season, including Hidalgo, who led Notre Dame on a midseason tear. However, it’s Watkins who has been the most consistent. Averaging 24.6 points per game (second-best in Division I basketball), Watkins is the engine of USC’s offense. She’s also been the foundation for a team that has welcomed a group of new players this season, including Stanford transfer Kiki Iriafen. Through all the changes, Watkins has led the Trojans to a 28–3 record, headlined by two big wins over UCLA and one over UConn.
Koons: JuJu Watkins, USC Trojans
What’s been so impressive about Watkins’s sophomore season is how she’s shown improvement from her generationally gifted freshman year, even while seeing her scoring numbers dip. The Trojans star has gotten more efficient, boosting her field goal percentage up 2.5 points to 42.6% and her three-point percentage up another 1.1 points to 33%. She’s cut down significantly on turnovers, while still having the ball in her hands a ton, and become an even better facilitator for her teammates. And it’s not like she isn’t still scoring at will, whether she’s getting to the rim, pulling up for a midrange jumper or drawing fouls and knocking down free throws.
Swinton: JuJu Watkins, USC Trojans
Watkins was tasked with being one of the players to carry on the proverbial torch that last year’s women’s college basketball class left behind, and she’s lived up to expectations and then some. Headlining a talented sophomore class that includes Hidalgo and Audi Crooks, Watkins nearly led the NCAA in scoring while growing more efficient and moving to a competitive Big Ten conference. Watkins is the steady hand for the No. 1 seed Trojans team and has earned top honors this season.
Final Four picks and national championship pick
Baccellieri’s Final Four: UCLA Bruins, South Carolina Gamecocks, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, UConn Huskies
Baccellieri’s 2025 champion: South Carolina
I find this field more open than it’s been in years: I think any one of the top seven or eight teams here could end up cutting down the nets. But pressed to make a pick, I’m going with South Carolina, whose impressive depth makes them hard to contend with. (They also have a very clear path through their region.) Another factor I like? The way the Gamecocks learn from their mistakes and make adjustments. They narrowly lost to Texas in February—only to come back and beat them by nearly 20 when they next played in March. Which means that while, yes, they suffered their worst loss in years earlier this season when they faced UConn, I think they have a real chance to take them down if those two teams meet again in the national championship. This group is just too balanced for me to pick against them.
Brennan’s Final Four: UCLA Bruins, South Carolina Gamecocks, Texas Longhorns, UConn Huskies
Brennan’s 2025 champion: South Carolina
South Carolina is peaking at the right time. Dawn Staley’s team enters the NCAA tournament playing its best basketball, charging past Texas to a dominant SEC tournament win. Despite their late-season charge, the Gamecocks lost out on the No. 1 overall seed to UCLA, with Staley telling ESPN’s Holly Rowe she was “surprised” by the committee's decision. She also downplayed the perceived snub’s impact as a motivator, but it's hard not to envision South Carolina playing with a bit of a chip on its shoulder. The Gamecocks have a relatively clear path through Birmingham 2, making them a favorite to advance to the Final Four.
Koons’s Final Four: UCLA Bruins, South Carolina Gamecocks, TCU Horned Frogs, USC Trojans
Koons’s 2025 champion: USC
USC’s Lindsay Gottlieb joined Staley as coaches of No. 1 seeds miffed at their placement in the field of 68 on Selection Sunday, doing her best to give the Trojans the bulletin board material they might need to navigate the dreaded Spokane 4 quadrant. But picking them to win is a bet on Watkins proving why she’s the best player in the nation over the next few weeks. As a freshman, she averaged 27.5 points and eight rebounds across four contests in the NCAA tournament—and her play this season has shown she’s taken her game up a level. USC has beaten UCLA two of three times already this year, so it’s not hard to see that result playing out again in the Final Four.
Swinton’s Final Four: UCLA Bruins, South Carolina Gamecocks, Texas Longhorns, UConn Huskies
Swinton’s 2025 champion: UConn
UConn will not have an easy path to return to the Final Four, and its biggest test may likely come in the Elite Eight against Watkins and USC. The Trojans took a narrow regular-season win over the Huskies in December, but UConn out-scoring USC 41–30 in the second half shows it learned that a win is possible with the proper adjustments.
Dark Horse in the tournament
Baccellieri: Ole Miss
Coach Yolett McPhee-McCuin is no stranger to March upsets. The Rebels’ defense made them a consistently tough opponent this year: While they had few wins against big competition, they managed to get within single digits of knocking off top programs like USC, NC State and Texas. They’re one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers, and on the right day, they could be a dangerous matchup in Spokane 1.
Brennan: Kansas State
The return of Ayoka Lee could change things for the Wildcats. The star 6' 6" center has recently returned to practice after being sidelined since January with a foot injury. Kansas State coach Jeff Mittie said Lee has looked “better than expected” leading up to the tournament, which should make opposing teams nervous. The Wildcats were 19–1 with Lee on the floor, and while they struggled without her, they did manage to gut out a tough win over TCU in February sans their anchor. If Lee can seamlessly reintegrate into the lineup, Kansas State may be able to make some waves in a tough region.
Koons: LSU
There may not be a more fearsome trio in the field this year than Flau’Jae Johnson, Aneesah Morrow and Mikaylah Williams. All three average more than 17 points per game and are forces defensively, led by the 6' 1" Morrow, who leads the nation in rebounds (13.6 per game). The overarching question for the Tigers is health. Johnson missed the SEC tournament and both her and Morrow were seen wearing protective boots on Selection Sunday. Head coach Kim Mulkey maintained that Johnson had been cleared and sat out for precautionary reasons, and said that both stars would be ready to go for the opening round. Given Mulkey’s pedigree and five NCAA championships, third among active coaches, it’s safe to say that LSU knows how to approach the month of March.
Swinton: West Virginia
WVU, the six-seed in the Birmingham 2 region, had a 3–4 record against top 25 teams this season, but can’t be counted out against top talent. The Mountaineers’ offense feeds off their defense, ranking No. 2 nationally in defensive rating (76.8) while recording 13.6 steals per game. Senior JJ Quinerly has led the way for West Virginia with 20.6 points per game and can be a breakout star in March. The Mountaineers find themselves in a tough region with South Carolina, but they have the tools to make a deep run if they are firing on all cylinders.
Most vulnerable No. 1 seed
Baccellieri: Texas.
Yes, USC has a very difficult potential Elite Eight matchup with UConn in Spokane 4—but Texas may have an even tougher road out of Birmingham 3. Just getting out of the Sweet 16 could be a nightmare with the possibility of facing either No. 4 Ohio State (which plays a demanding press) or No. 5 Tennessee (with three-point shooting can take over games). And past that? Texas would likely have either No. 2 TCU (a balanced, veteran roster) or a very motivated No. 3 Notre Dame (which has some of the most impressive wins in the country). That’s a hard road.
Brennan: USC.
Not because the Trojans are the weakest No. 1 seed, but because they have the toughest path in a stacked Spokane 4 region. A potential Elite Eight rematch against UConn looms, which could spoil USC’s Final Four hopes (again).
Koons: Texas.
Plenty has been made about USC’s gauntlet of a path to the Final Four, but the Longhorns’ outlook is no cakewalk with Tennessee or Ohio State looming in the Sweet 16, and TCU or Notre Dame as a likely Elite Eight foe. Elite defense aside, Texas is one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the field (29.6%). If opponents sell out to stop Madison Booker, the Longhorns have little other offense to dependably rely on.
Swinton: USC
The Trojans have not been handed an easy road, with UConn likely sitting in the way of a potential Final Four berth for the second straight year. If the Trojans make it past the Huskies and into the Final Four, it will be well-earned, and they will prove they have the weapons to hang tough against any other No. 1 seed for the national title. Until then, Watkins and USC have their work cut out for them.
Best Mid-Major team to watch
Baccellieri: South Dakota State
The No. 10 seed Jackrabbits are making their fourth tournament appearance in five years out of the Summit League. They’re one of the best shooting teams in the country: They rank in the top 10 among all D-I programs for both two-point and three-point shooting. (Only three teams averaged more points per scoring attempt this year: No. 2 seeds UConn and TCU and fellow mid-major Richmond.) Led by ultra-efficient junior forward Brooklyn Meyer, circle them as a potential first-round upset over No. 7 Oklahoma State.
Brennan: Harvard
Harmoni Turner is reason enough to watch the Crimson. The star guard has had a prolific season, averaging 22.5 points per game (ninth-best in D-I) while shooting 44% from the field. She’s on a hot streak entering the Big Dance, too, scoring 44 points against Princeton in the Ivy League tournament semifinals before putting up 24 points against Columbia in the final. Its Ivy Madness win secured Harvard its first NCAA tournament appearance since 2007, where it’ll meet Michigan State in the first round. Could the 10-seeded Crimson upend the seven-seeded Spartans? It’s not a bad matchup for Carrie Moore’s squad, with Turner able to punish a Michigan State team that’s lost five of its last eight games.
Koons: Richmond
Picking a No. 8 seed as the mid-major to watch may feel like the coward’s way out, but the high seed is a testament to the program sixth-year coach Aaron Roussell has built. The Spiders are back in the NCAA tournament for the second year in a row after testing themselves in nonconference play and then beating the brakes off the rest of the Atlantic 10. Richmond is an even better shooting team than aforementioned South Dakota State, ranking first in the nation in two-point percentage and fifth in three-point percentage—while taking the ninth-most shots in the country from behind the arc. The Spiders play at a grindingly slow pace with three upperclassmen six-footers (Maggie Doogan, Rachel Ullstrom and Addie Budnik) that all shoot more than 38% from three. That sort of length and efficiency is a combination that could give even No. 1 overall seed UCLA fits if Richmond gets past Georgia Tech in the first round.
Swinton: Grand Canyon
The Antelopes are in their first-ever NCAA tournament after winning the program’s first WAC title and will face No. 4 Baylor as a 13-seed. Grand Canyon put up a 32–2 record while sporting the longest winning streak in the nation at 30 games, last losing on Nov. 18 to Oregon. The Lopes have a tough first-round draw against Baylor, but it will be fun to see what they can do after their standout year.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as March Madness Predictions: Dark Horses, Championship Picks and More for Women’s NCAA Tournament.