Only two MLB managers were fired after last season, reflecting remarkable stability in the dugout across the league following eight changes the previous offseason. It seems most teams are satisfied with the direction they’re heading; 16 managers are in the two safest tiers of our hot seat spectrum, compared to eight when I last performed this exercise four years ago.
That means we could be in for a year of upheaval, though. Back in 2021, when just three teams had changed skippers heading into the season, nine clubs ended up with new managers by the end of the year.
As such, this seems like a good time to assess each manager’s job security to try to figure out which ones can afford a disappointing campaign and who could soon be handed the proverbial pink slip. The hot seat spectrum I’ve devised contains six tiers, ranging from happily married to lame ducks walking. Let’s see where everyone stands.
Happily Married
Dave Roberts, Los Angeles Dodgers
The marriage between Roberts and Los Angeles has been rocky at times, but it’s never been better after his second World Series title in five years. Roberts, 52, richly deserved his newly minted record-setting contract that’ll pay him slightly more than $8 million per season through 2029. And after he’s matched Tommy Lasorda’s pennant (four) and World Series title (two) count in fewer than half the seasons—not to mention being part of baseball’s model organization—I’d bet he stays in Hollywood even longer.
Bruce Bochy, Texas Rangers
Bochy turns 70 in April and his contract expires after this season, but the Rangers have said it would “enthusiastically welcome” his return in 2026. That’s hardly a surprise given Bochy brought the franchise its first World Series title. It seems like it’s entirely up to Bochy how long he’ll manage in Texas.
Brian Snitker, Atlanta Braves
Snitker, 69, is technically on the last year of his contract entering 2025, but all signs indicate he’ll be allowed to manage Atlanta as long as he wants to. He owns a better regular season winning percentage (.558) and playoff record (24–21) than Braves legend Bobby Cox (.557, 64–65) and the same number of World Series titles (one). Atlanta is sort of like MLB’s version of the Pittsburgh Steelers in that they’ve only had three managers since 1990. Snitker has been with the Braves even longer, working in their organization in some capacity since 1977. It would likely take a disastrous campaign to make the Braves want to make a managerial change, and even then, it seems more likely Snitker would sooner walk off into the sunset on his own accord.
A.J. Hinch, Detroit Tigers
Hinch signed a “long-term” extension in December 2023 even before his supreme pitching staff management helped the Tigers embark on a late-season run that carried them into the playoffs, then past Hinch’s former team in Houston into the ALDS. After he guided the Astros through the beginning of their dynasty, he may be on the verge of starting another one in Detroit behind reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal and an intriguing collection of young hitters.
Stephen Vogt, Cleveland Guardians
The former MLB catcher is reportedly signed through 2026, and after he was named the AL Manager of the Year for taking Cleveland to its third ALCS this century during his debut as a manager, it wouldn’t be a surprise for Vogt to net an extension this season if the Guardians again take hold of the AL Central.
Alex Cora, Boston Red Sox
The 2018 World Series champion was nearing lame duck status before he agreed last July to a three-year, $21.75 million extension that made him MLB’s second highest-paid manager at the time. Boston was eager to bring back Cora following his 2020 suspension for his role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal, and with the Red Sox looking set up for a sustained contention window following three non-winning seasons, he could end up staying in Beantown for a long time.
Kevin Cash, Tampa Bay Rays
Cash is remarkably both MLB’s longest-tenured manager and, seemingly, the one with the longest commitment from his team. The veteran skipper signed a contract last year that reportedly keeps him under contract through 2030, which reflects his stature in Tampa after he took the franchise to the World Series in 2020, part of five consecutive playoff appearances. That streak ended last season, but Cash has been a mainstay of the Rays’ longest string of success while their front office has been routinely pillaged by other teams.
Carlos Mendoza, New York Mets
Mendoza’s first year at the helm resulted in a surprising run to the NLCS, earning him the trust of long-suffering Mets fans. Expectations are much higher this time around, something the former Yankees bench coach is very familiar with. It’s fair to wonder if Mendoza has the cachet with the front office to survive a traditionally Metsian disappointment of a campaign, but the reality is perhaps no manager is more set up for success with Steve Cohen’s deep pockets behind him.
Matt Quatraro, Kansas City Royals
The Royals exercised Quatraro’s 2026 option last month, and it’s no wonder—in his second season, Kansas City became just the sixth team since 1969 to improve by 30 wins. The former Tampa Bay Rays bench coach is safe as a kitten after helping snap the Royals’ nine-year playoff drought, and Kansas City has a good shot at winning the AL Central as long as Bobby Witt Jr. is in town.
Seemingly Safe
Aaron Boone, New York Yankees
Boone’s first World Series appearance earned him a two-year extension through 2027, which might mean he deserves to be in the above section. But Yankees fans have frequently grown exasperated with Boone over his seven-year tenure, and if New York falls flat in the wake of Gerrit Cole’s season-ending injury, Boone could easily find himself back on the hot seat. Nothing is ever guaranteed for managers in the Bronx.
Pat Murphy, Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers didn’t skip a beat following the departure of Craig Counsell to Chicago before last season, as Counsell’s former bench coach impressively oversaw a one-win improvement (93–69) from 2023 to earn NL Manager of the Year honors. Murphy will have to again deal with the Brewers’ constant roster churn following the departures of Willy Adames and Devin Williams, and at some point fans may sour on him if the team’s lack of postseason success continues. But the 66-year-old’s long track record of success at the collegiate level and in the minor leagues indicates Milwaukee will stay competitive under his tutelage.
Mike Shildt, San Diego Padres
Shildt signed a two-year extension through 2027 after last season, when the Padres won their most games (93) since their 1998 World Series campaign. San Diego may struggle to keep up with the Dodgers in the post-Peter Seidler era, but it seems the club is confident it has the right man to lead the way.
Torey Lovullo, Arizona Diamondbacks
The last time we broke out the hot seat spectrum four years ago, I had Lovullo in the lowest tier of job security. He somehow survived three consecutive losing seasons between 2020–22 that included a 110-loss campaign in ’21. Arizona’s faith was rewarded with a Cinderella run to the World Series—then last year's D-Backs narrowly missed the playoffs despite improving by five wins in the regular season. Lovullo has just two playoff appearances in eight seasons but seems to have earned the front office’s trust and is under contract through 2026.
Mark Kotsay, The Athletics
Usually, when a manager has yet to win 70 games in three seasons, he’s not rewarded with an extension. But the Athletics are in a unique situation with the club hoping to start playing in Las Vegas in 2028, and with the team finally shelling out some cash this offseason following a three-year tank job that coincided with Kotsay’s tenure. Last month they committed to him through ’28.
Craig Counsell, Chicago Cubs
Counsell signed a five-year, $40 million contract in November 2023 that made him MLB’s highest-paid manager until Dave Roberts reached a record extension with the Dodgers earlier this month. Accordingly, his job status likely doesn’t hinge on the Cubs’ success this season. But the heat would certainly turn up if they miss out on the playoffs again after a concerted push toward contention this offseason.
Rob Thomson, Philadelphia Phillies
Thomson’s Phillies tenure has seen diminishing returns the last few seasons, with Philadelphia exiting the playoffs a round earlier each year since their 2022 World Series appearance. The 61-year-old’s contract was nevertheless extended through 2026 after last year’s NLDS loss to the Mets, but his status is not beyond reproach if the veteran-laden Phillies continue to decline this season.
Honeymoon Phase
Terry Francona, Cincinnati Reds
The Reds didn’t lure Francona out of retirement to give him a short leash. The two-time World Series champion and three-time American League Manager of the Year is on a three-year contract. It’d take something like the historic collapse that ended his Boston tenure in 2011 to push him out of Cincinnati … but even being in playoff contention until the season’s final day would be considered an improvement for the Reds.
Clayton McCullough, Miami Marlins
McCullough, 45, was hired by the Marlins in November after serving as the Dodgers’ first base coach for four seasons. His predecessor, Skip Schumaker, lasted just two seasons in Miami after a 100-loss campaign followed the franchise’s fourth ever playoff appearance. President of baseball operations Peter Bendix stripped the roster down to its studs over the offseason, so you figure McCullough will be given more time. But you never know when it comes to one of baseball’s most dysfunctional franchises.
Will Venable, Chicago White Sox
Venable had long been pegged as a future manager, and the former outfielder will get his chance in Chicago after serving as bench coach in Boston under Cora and as Bochy’s associate manager in Texas. The former Princeton multi-sport athlete will likely get a pass for a couple of years with his team coming off a historically poor season … unless things manage to somehow get even worse.
Critical Juncture Ahead
Joe Espada, Houston Astros
The Astros’ seven-year streak of reaching at least the ALCS was snapped in Espada’s first year at the helm, as Houston was unceremoniously swept out of the wild-card round by former manager Hinch and the Tigers. Espada had long been expected to assume the mantle in Houston after serving as the team’s bench coach since 2018. But if the Astros dynasty officially ends this year with an October spent out of the playoffs, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Houston go in a different direction for its next phase.
Dan Wilson, Seattle Mariners
Wilson was notably hired as a full-time manager, not an interim, in the immediate aftermath of his predecessor Scott Servais’s firing in August. But the length of his contract hasn’t been disclosed, and he may end up being the scapegoat for the front office’s inactivity this winter if the Mariners falter.
Derek Shelton, Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are coming off of consecutive 76-win seasons, which isn’t too bad considering their payroll constraints. But the pressure figures to rise with Paul Skenes elevating expectations entering Shelton’s sixth year. The fourth last-place finish of his tenure could very well spell the end of his time in Pittsburgh.
Dave Martinez, Washington Nationals
Martinez has survived five consecutive losing campaigns in the wake of Washington’s sole World Series title in 2019, with the club consistently projecting outward confidence in him. But this is the last guaranteed year of his contract—the Nationals hold a club option for 2026—and some tangible progress in the club’s rebuild is likely necessary for Martinez on the heels of consecutive 71-win seasons.
Brandon Hyde, Baltimore Orioles
Entering his seventh season in Baltimore, Hyde has been with the Orioles through a long rebuild that’s transitioned into a contention window over the last couple of years with no playoff victories (and five losses) to show for it. He likely needs to win at least one playoff series to secure his position.
Between a Rock and a Hard Place
Bob Melvin, San Francisco Giants
New president of baseball operations Buster Posey was able to break San Francisco’s lingering record of failure to sign star free agents this offseason, bringing Adames and Justin Verlander into the fold. That ramps up the pressure on Melvin, whose contract is reportedly only guaranteed for this season, to succeed in a stacked NL West. The Giants have had just one winning season since 2016, and if Melvin doesn’t at least help improve that showing, Posey would almost certainly hire his own guy to work under him in the dugout.
Oliver Marmol, St. Louis Cardinals
Marmol not only survived the 2023 campaign, which saw St. Louis finish in last place for the first time since 1990, but he even earned a two-year extension through 2026 in the aftermath. The former Cardinals bench coach went on to lead a 12-game improvement to 83–79 last year, but his future is murky with St. Louis seemingly entering rebuild mode.
Rocco Baldelli, Minnesota Twins
Baldelli’s job is likely on the line this season in the wake of Minnesota’s September collapse. He did help snap the Twins’ 19-year, 18-game postseason losing streak in 2023, but three teams surpassed them in the AL Central last year and the club did very little to combat that over the winter.
John Schneider, Toronto Blue Jays
It certainly seems as if it’s playoffs-or-bust for Schneider after the Blue Jays declined from 89 to 74 wins last year. He owns a 209–189 record over two-and-a-half seasons but is 0–4 in the playoffs. Toronto could (and should) opt to enter a rebuild if the Blue Jays again miss out on the postseason and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. departs in free agency.
Lame Ducks Walking
Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels
Washington was hired on a two-year deal in November 2023, a notable detail for its brevity, and is thus guaranteed nothing beyond this season. MLB’s oldest manager turns 73 next month. The Angels haven’t had a winning record since 2015. The optics aren’t good for a guy who deserved to win at least one title during his eight-year tenure with the Rangers.
Bud Black, Colorado Rockies
It’s a reflection of Black’s managerial skill and the respect he commands within the game that he’s still employed by Colorado going into his ninth season. Black is the only Rockies manager to ever oversee consecutive playoff berths, and his 537–657 record gives him the most games managed and wins for any skipper in the franchise's history. But the latter of those playoff campaigns came back in 2018, and the team hasn’t enjoyed a winning record since. Black is operating on a second straight one-year contract despite consecutive 100-loss seasons, and it’s going to be difficult for the Rockies to do much better in '25.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Hot Seat Spectrum: Where Every MLB Manager Sits Heading Into 2025.