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We have a lot to cover in the heat of the NFL free-agency negotiating period, so let’s dive in …
• The mandate in Washington is clear—now is the time.
Let’s start with Washington Commanders GM Adam Peters trading WR Jahan Dotson and a fifth-round pick to the Philadelphia Eagles for a 2025 third-round pick and two seventh-round selections (one that was initially Denver’s), and DT John Ridgeway III and their own ’25 seventh-rounder to New Orleans for a sixth-round pick last summer. Peters then flipped the Commanders’ slotted third- and fourth-round picks, and returned the sixth-rounder he got for Ridgeway, to the Saints for CB Marshon Lattimore, who finished the season in Washington and is under contract through ’26.
Lattimore came with a sweetner, too—a 2025 fifth-round pick that Peters flipped last month to the San Francisco 49ers for WR Deebo Samuel. After that came Monday’s blockbuster, with Peters packaging the third-rounder (initially Miami’s, and used by the Dolphins to land Jaylen Wright at pick No. 120 last year) and one of the seventh-rounders (initially Denver’s, and acquired in Philly’s trade for TE Albert Okwuegbunam) he received for Dotson, plus second- and fourth-rounders in ’26 to land Houston Texans left tackle Laremy Tunsil and the Texans’ ’25 fourth-round pick.
So, now, the Commanders have Lattimore, Tunsil and Samuel, and five picks left for 2025: Their own first-rounder, plus second- and sixth-rounders, Houston’s fourth and Philly’s seventh. They’re also down two of their first four picks for ’26 with over a year to work on that.
My takeaway is that Washington, rightfully, thinks it’s close. And it’s also pretty cool how they’ve been able to work through all this. As I see it, Peters and coach Dan Quinn inherited a roster needing work at almost every premium position: quarterback, left tackle, edge rusher, corner, and complementary parts at receiver, too.
Not every one of those holes has been filled. But a year later, they have Jayden Daniels at quarterback, Tunsil at left tackle, Samuel opposite Terry McLaurin at receiver, and Lattimore at corner. They spackled the edge-rusher situation last year with veterans Dante Fowler Jr. and Dorance Armstrong, so there are long-term questions there. But they have a draft class in front of them now that is unusually deep at that position.
Now, it’s certainly possible the draft-pick drain of 2025 and ’26 has an impact on the roster long-term. But, again, the Commanders have a lot of a runway to deal with that from here.
And a lot of winning to do now.
• The second question is what happened with Tunsil that made him expendable.
Tunsil, to be clear, is well-liked in the Texans’ building. That said, he isn’t a tone-setter, and the offensive line room in Houston last year went the wrong way, becoming borderline toxic, which adds context to the trade of Kenyon Green and the release of Shaq Mason. That’s part of why the Texans figured they probably wouldn’t give him a third top-of-the-market extension in 2026 after having paid him in ’20 (three years, $66 million) and again in ’23 (three years, $75 million).
So with his 31st birthday in August, Houston spent the past few weeks quietly measuring trade interest in Tunsil, and eventually found the right deal—the price they received for the 10-year vet is roughly the equivalent of a late first-round pick in the form of the aforementioned swap of the tackle and a fourth-round pick for a third- and seventh- round selections this year, and second- and fourth-rounders in ’26.
That gives them resources to find Tunsil’s replacement, if it’s not someone on the roster such as Tytus Howard or Blake Fisher. Will they be able to get a suitable one? How this trade looks in five years rides on it.
And while we’re on the big picture, there’s an element of that in this move for the Texans. DeMeco Ryans has kind of makeup he wants on his defense now, with young stars such as Will Anderson Jr. and Derek Stingley Jr. carrying the flag. He’s still trying to find it on offense, and the hope is turning over the roster some on that side—and finding new leaders—helps.
That, by the way, doesn’t mean the Commanders are barking up the wrong tree here. Just as the Texans are betting on their ability to find new pieces for their line, Washington is gambling on its culture with this move, and that putting Tunsil in a group with guys such as Daniels and McLaurin will get the best out of him. Remember, the sorts of questions that exist here on Tunsil were once there on Trent Williams. Peters was part of the group that landed him as a result in San Francisco five years ago, and we know how that turned out.
• The New England Patriots were perhaps the NFL’s most active team on free agency’s first day, and, outside of their biggest splash (signing DT Milton Williams to a four-year, $104 million deal with $60 million fully guaranteed), there was real rhyme and reason to what they did.
In fact, it mirrors what Washington executed last year—investing in third-contract guys that had background with their coaches, to create some certainty in what they were buying and make an effort to get their heads above water. DE/LB Harold Landry III played for Mike Vrabel in Tennessee, LB Robert Spillane was a captain for Josh McDaniels in Las Vegas, OT Morgan Moses was with Todd Downing at the New York Jets, and CB Carlton Davis III was with Terrell Willians last year in Detroit. Those guys aren’t stars, but the Patriots know what they’re getting.
So the hope is it creates the effect that Armstrong, Fowler, Tyler Biadasz, Bobby Wagner and Austin Ekeler did for Quinn in Washington, adding some scrappiness and edge and, they hope, identity to a roster that needs help everywhere. The idea for the Commanders at the time was to try and put together a team that might be able to get to .500. I think that’s the concept here, too. (Obviously, a special year from Daniels tilted the scales for Washington, and helped the Commanders do a whole lot more.)
• The Minnesota Vikings didn’t mess around over the past 48 hours, adding ex-Colts Ryan Kelly and Will Fries to the interior offensive line, and Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave to the interior of the defensive front. Faced with the rugged run games of the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions, and those teams’ loaded defensive lines in the NFC North, the Vikings should be better equipped this year—and, despite how it ended, Minnesota did win 14 games a year ago.
But how it ended … obviously had an impact here.
• Based on how the Denver Broncos staff felt about QB Zach Wilson, I wouldn’t rule out the idea that he could have a renaissance with the Miami Dolphins. With Bo Nix entrenched, Wilson was always going to look for a place where he’d have a better shot to get on the field—and there’s no delicate way to say that Tua Tagovailoa’s injury history did signal some level of opportunity there.
Wilson’s also a fit for Mike McDaniel’s offense, which was part of why the Jets, with McDaniel’s old buddy Robert Saleh in charge and friend Mike LaFleur running the offense, took him second overall in the first place.
• Justin Fields and Daniel Jones owe Sam Darnold a nice thank you. His one-year, $10 million bridge contract worked out well enough last year to create a healthy bump in the market. Fields is getting $40 million over two years with the Jets, including $30 million guaranteed, and Jones has a one-year deal with $13.15 million fully guaranteed with the Indianapolis Colts, as those teams look for their version of what Darnold did in Minnesota (and Baker Mayfield did the year before that with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers).
• If Aaron Rodgers picks the New York Giants, I’m not sure where Russell Wilson lands. Maybe Pittsburgh swallows hard and brings him back. But other than that? I know the Tennessee Titans don’t have any interest. The Cleveland Browns just traded for Kenny Pickett and, I think, could be waiting to see what happens with Kirk Cousins and the Atlanta Falcons. And I don’t feel like there’d be much for him as a backup out there.
• The willingness to spend on corners was pretty eye-opening on the first day of free agency. The Vikings gave Byron Murphy II $22 million per year to return. Davis, Charvarius Ward and Paulson Adebo got $18 million apiece with the Patriots, Colts and Giants, respectively. D.J. Reed likely lands around $16 million per year with the Lions. A lot of teams figured those three would hover around $15 million per year, so they did really well.
• While we’re on the Colts, I think the context on the Jones signing is this: They felt like benching Anthony Richardson last year, with Joe Flacco taking his job, lit a fire under the 2023 No. 4 pick. And so Indy hopes bringing in Jones will push Richardson to finally turn the corner.
• On Cousins … six days until that $10 million for 2026 becomes fully guaranteed.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Why the Commanders Could Be Close to a Super Bowl.