Winning your bracket challenge isn’t always about nailing who wins it all, but who not to pick for that deep run. Sports Illustrated is here to help you decide which men’s basketball teams might be best to avoid that could see their seasons end during the first weekend of the tournament. These are the annual Danger Rankings, the five teams seeded in the top four that might struggle to survive the first two rounds of the Big Dance. Some are teams with clear vulnerabilities; others are ones that drew difficult matchups.
Here are five teams you may want to avoid picking to make that deep run:
No. 1 Houston Cougars, Midwest Region
Kelvin Sampson can’t have been too pleased about his team’s draw when it popped onto the screen Sunday night. The Cougars got the No. 3 overall seed as expected, but could end up facing a top-10 team based on the analytics in the second round in Gonzaga. That potential matchup would pit the two teams with the longest second-weekend streaks in the country: Gonzaga has made it a ridiculous nine tournaments in a row, while Houston has at least reached the second weekend in five straight tournaments.
Gonzaga has the two things necessary to deal with Houston’s overwhelming ball pressure and rebounding dominance: size and point guard play. Ryan Nembhard is perhaps the best passer in college basketball and has the experience necessary to deal with Houston’s ballhawking guards. And up front, Gonzaga is one of the better defensive rebounding teams in the country and can cycle through multiple bodies up front to stay fresh against this high-motor Houston front. It will be a tall order for anyone to beat Houston, but Gonzaga at least has the personnel and the overall talent level required to hang with them for 40 minutes and the March experience to potentially get over the hump.
No. 2 St. John’s Red Storm, West Region
Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams, all 36 Nos. 1 and 2 seeds that entered the season unranked have missed the Final Four and have averaged fewer than two wins per tournament appearance. That number may mean less in 2025 given how much the portal has reshaped roster building and made preseason rankings more difficult, but it’s one that might give people pause about going all-in with St. John’s (and Michigan State, which also qualifies for this stat). The other potential stumbling block for St. John’s, as good as it has been in Rick Pitino’s second season, is its struggles from beyond the arc. St. John’s makes six threes per game (336th nationally) and does so at under a 31% clip (338th nationally). Pitino’s team makes up for it by being elite at forcing turnovers and dominating the offensive glass, but their inefficiencies on the offensive end could make a deep run complicated.
Matchup-wise, it’s hard to imagine Pitino’s team losing to Omaha, though the Mavericks are an excellent defensive rebounding team and have a high-level point guard in JJ White to handle pressure. But in the second round, Pitino going up against either Kansas or Arkansas should be electric. Even with the Jayhawks’ struggles down the stretch, they still have the talent and March pedigree to pull an upset, while Arkansas is getting healthy finally with star guard Boogie Fland set to return from injury. That’s a dangerous early-round matchup.
No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones, South Region
The Cyclones have limped into the NCAA tournament, just 9–8 in their final 17 games after a 15–1 start with just one win over an NCAA tournament–bound team in that stretch. And to make matters worse, star guard Keshon Gilbert won’t be available for the postseason due to an undisclosed injury. Gilbert is a huge piece of the equation for the Cyclones, their leading assist man and a high-level on-ball defender as well as a key secondary scoring option. After showing major offensive improvement from a year ago in the season’s first two months, ISU regressed back to its old ways, and not having Gilbert makes life even harder.
ISU gets an intriguing first-round matchup in Lipscomb, which ranks in the top 100 nationally in offensive and defensive efficiency. Iowa State has traditionally been excellent against mid-majors under T.J. Otzelberger because of their elite defense and ability to turn teams over, but Lipscomb is excellent at taking care of the ball and is capable of getting scorching hot from deep. Assuming the Cyclones survive that test, they’ll face either Ole Miss or a play-in winner, matchups that could also serve as a stumbling block given Iowa State’s recent struggles against top competition.
No. 3 Wisconsin Badgers, East Region
It was hard to watch the Big Ten tournament last week and not come away impressed with the Badgers, but the draw Greg Gard’s team received from the selection committee is a brutal one. First, getting sent to Denver instead of playing in front of a more friendly crowd in Milwaukee for the first and second round is a tough break. But beyond that, the matchup for the Badgers is very tricky. Assuming they get by No. 14 seed Montana (not necessarily an easy task given the Grizzlies’ backcourt talent), Wisconsin will see either BYU or VCU in the second round. Since Jan. 15, both of those potential round of 32 foes are top-25 teams per T-Rank, with BYU cracking the top 10. BYU also comes to Denver with the advantage of being used to playing at altitude, which could be a big edge in a second-round game against the Badgers.
No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers, Midwest Region
The Boilermakers have high hopes of making another deep run after last year’s trip to the national title game, and Purdue has the coach and star power to beat just about anyone in the field. Matchup-wise though, it’s hard to script a worse first-round foe for the Boilermakers than High Point, one of the elite offensive teams in the field. High Point’s strengths should exploit many of Purdue’s biggest weaknesses defensively, with an elite ball-screen offense that gets veteran guards like Kezza Giffa and Bobby Pettiford plenty of drives to the rim. Purdue is the worst two-point defense in the field by a fairly significant margin, and has been carved up in particular by teams that are as good in pick-and-rolls as High Point is. Another major concern for Purdue is keeping Trey Kaufman-Renn out of foul trouble, but High Point starting power forward Kimani Hamilton is one of the best players in the tournament at drawing fouls.
The main matchup edge for Purdue comes on the offensive end, where point guard Braden Smith could shred High Point’s drop pick-and-roll coverage. But if this game comes down to Purdue having to make tons of midrange jumpers while High Point crushes Purdue at the rim, it could be a long night for the Boilers. And even if Purdue can advance, Clemson or McNeese State would each serve as difficult second-round tests.
More College Basketball on Sports Illustrated
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Five Teams to Avoid in Your Men’s NCAA Tournament Bracket.