March Madness is underway with the First Four games. We’ve ranked the field from No. 1 to No. 68, previewed each region of the men’s bracket, made round-by-round picks, forecasted who to avoid in your bracket and who will be Cinderella. There is a guide to first-round games, a rundown of the NBA draft prospects to watch and a list of teams with the clearest path to the Final Four in San Antonio. And, of course, 40 things to know about the 2025 NCAA tournament.
Now, Sports Illustrated college basketball writers Pat Forde, Kevin Sweeney and Bryan Fischer and betting writer Reed Wallach give their predictions for the Big Dance from who will win it all to dark horses and best mid-major teams to watch.
National Player of the Year
Forde: Cooper Flagg, Duke Blue Devils
Flagg has not just been phenomenal in every individual aspect of the game this season, he’s elevated Duke’s collective performance. The Blue Devils are better than they’ve been defensively in years, in no small part because of Flagg’s length and versatility, and his ability to bend a defense has created better shots for the Duke offense as a whole. No slight to Johni Broome, who has been fantastic, but Flagg is the clear choice for me.
Sweeney: Cooper Flagg, Duke Blue Devils
In most years, what Broome has accomplished this season at Auburn would be more than enough to win him the award. But this has been a generational season from Flagg, lifting Duke to a No. 1 seed and ACC championship already with more potentially to come this month. Flagg’s impact on every possession of the game is immense thanks to his passing ability and defensive chops, and he has been more efficient as a scorer than expected. If I’m starting a college team from scratch, he’d be my first pick.
Fischer: Johni Broome, Auburn Tigers
Broome has been collecting hardware in recent weeks like he collects rebounds and the double-double machine gets my vote as the player of the year by a narrow margin over Flagg. While the true freshman has been outstanding, Broome was the linchpin on the best team over the course of this season and is a good reason why the Tigers were able to win the toughest conference in recent hoops history. He led the team in four categories and was the definition of an excellent two-way player. Broome has improved each season he’s been in college basketball but it’s been eye-opening how much he’s blossomed into the best player around as the rare big man who your eyes are drawn to every time he touches the ball.
Wallach: Cooper Flagg, Duke Blue Devils
Flagg is the best player in college basketball, full stop. He is a two-way monster who has his fingerprints all over the game, leading the Blue Devils in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks. While Auburn was the No. 1 overall seed, Duke is the best team in the country this season with a head-to-head win over Auburn in nonconference play.
Final Four and National Champion
Forde: Michigan State Spartans, Florida Gators, Duke Blue Devils and Houston Cougars, Florida beating Houston in the title game.
Sorry to be so chalky, but I see three No. 1 seeds and a No. 2 making it to San Antonio. Stuff can and will happen, which means Florida, Houston, Duke and Michigan State assuredly will not all make the Final Four—but I’m having a hard time identifying a specific party crasher. Teams like Michigan or Clemson could win four games, but they could also lose their first game. As for the winner: I have no misgivings in picking Florida. I liked the Gators before the SEC tournament, and I love them now as a title favorite. Their depth is a separator—they have size, guards, shooting, defense, everything. And it helps that Alijah Martin has Final Four experience at FAU.
Sweeney: Michigan State Spartans, Duke Blue Devils, Tennessee Volunteers and Florida Gators, and Duke beating Florida in the title game.
I think the Blue Devils are the most complete team in the field, with so much size, shooting and rim protection around their catalyst in Cooper Flagg. It will be hard for any team to take down Florida with how the Gators are playing right now, but Duke’s ceiling is the highest of any team in the tournament.
Fischer: Auburn Tigers, Duke Blue Devils, Houston Cougars and Florida Gators, and Florida beating Duke in the title game.
Chalk, I know, but the trends we’re seeing in a lot of sports nowadays in the NIL/super conference era make me think we’re in store for all of the top teams to make it to San Antonio. The fact is, Duke has trended toward being one of the best teams in recent history in metrics like KenPom, Auburn has been the most consistently elite program throughout the year, Florida is red hot and Houston dominated the basketball-centric Big 12 with ease. That’s a recipe for the No. 1 seeds to survive the madness and cut down the nets at all four regionals.
As far as the national title goes, I’m a little concerned about picking the Gators given their head coach has never won a tournament game before, but they are that rare combination of being the hot team who has been well tested in league play and who sport enough shooting to go all the way. The questions about Cooper Flagg’s ankle make me wonder about him after playing five games on less rest than normal, plus Florida might be the one team who won’t be as bothered by the Blue Devils’ length. It should be a fitting Final Four this year but the gut just says UF winds up continuing this meteoric run.
Wallach: Auburn Tigers, Duke Blue Devils, Houston Cougars and Texas Tech Red Raiders, and Duke beating Texas Tech in the title game.
I think Auburn and Houston could be ripe to be picked off early in the tournament with volatile play, but I'm going to take both to get to the Final Four while everyone’s darling entering the tournament, Florida, gets bounced earlier than expected in the toughest region. Duke is ultimately my pick to cut down the nets. The team has a fairly easy path to the Final Four and I believe it’s the team’s defense that makes them reliable to go the distance with Flagg being flanked by big man Khaman Maluach down low. Factor in the emergence of Kon Knueppel as a true point guard, and I believe the Blue Devils can handle late-game situations that plagued the team early in the season.
Dark Horse
Forde: Colorado State Rams
Colorado State could be a bracket buster. They were a hot team going into the Mountain West tourney, and hotter coming out. They have a legit star in Nique Clifford, who can carry a team for multiple rounds, and the supporting cast is capable. Niko Medved is an underrated coach. As long as he doesn’t have Minnesota on his mind, the Rams can make the Sweet 16 at least.
Sweeney: Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois is perhaps the most boom-or-bust team in the field. Its 12 losses have come by an average of nearly 14 points per contest, but the Illini also have 12 wins by 20-plus points this season. At their best, this is one of the most dangerous teams out there, with two NBA-bound guards and a gifted big in Tomislav Ivisic, but they’re also prone to an all-systems failure and early exit. The path is manageable with Texas or Xavier in the first round, a potential date with a wounded Kentucky team in the second and a potential Sweet 16 date with a Tennessee team that Illinois lost to by just two in the regular season.
Fischer: Illinois Fighting Illini
I’ve been on the Illini for a while now and feel they could go anywhere from one-and-done in the tourney all the way through to the Final Four. At their peak, they are certainly capable of making a long run and the bracket is set up nicely for them to do so. The potential trips to Milwaukee and Indianapolis are not at all taxing, while they also draw a very favorable matchup out of the First Four between either Texas or Xavier, and could advance to face a Kentucky team that has been a shell of themselves due to injuries. Then, if they make it that far, we’ve seen them play Tennessee well and could be one of the few teams that are capable of going back-and-forth with Houston if Brad Underwood’s team can be a bit better at dictating the pace of the game. I’m guessing that Big Ten tourney game served as a wake-up call and it wouldn’t shock me to see this group surprise during the rest of March.
Wallach: Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech has checked all the boxes as a worthy Final Four team all season long with a blend of veteran talent and elite floor spacing around the play of transfers like guard Elijah Hawkins and big man JT Toppin. The team has an elite three-point shooting offense that can also get downhill with forward Darrion Williams while being more than capable on the defensive side of the floor, where the team is top 25 in defensive rebounding rate. The team has won all over the country this season, including winning at Houston and BYU which makes me bullish it can handle the rigors of the NCAA tournament.
Most Vulnerable No. 1 Seed
Forde: Auburn Tigers
Auburn, primarily because the Tigers are in the same bracket with Michigan State. But I also didn’t love the way Auburn finished the season defensively. It is not guarding at the same level it was earlier in the season, particularly in the paint.
Sweeney: Houston Cougars
This has more to do with the Cougars’ draw than anything. A second-round matchup with Gonzaga is brutal, and that’s what Kelvin Sampson’s team is staring down if the Zags beat Georgia in the opening round.
Fischer: Houston Cougars
I have to think just in terms of style of play, combined with J’Wan Roberts on a bum ankle, it’s got to be the Cougars in the Midwest. We’ve seen when teams are able to push the pace (Texas Tech and Alabama come to mind), this team is liable to have a few scoreless stretches that result in them getting tripped up. Kelvin Sampson is probably the greatest coach to have not won it all and might have his best team since arriving at UH, but that draw makes me slightly nervous about being able to capitalize on a Final Four a short drive from campus.
Wallach: Florida Gators
Florida has been anointed as the biggest threat to Duke after finishing the season on a heater, but the team has the toughest region by far and wasn’t tested in nonconference play. What if the SEC was somewhat inflating its own metrics similar to how the Big Ten did for several years? Something to think about with the likes of Maryland looming in the Sweet 16.
Best Mid-Major Team to Watch
Forde: UC San Diego Tritons
I love the Tritons. They launch a ton of threes, take care of the ball and have an intriguing star in New Zealander Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones. He leads the nation in free throw attempts, finding ways to draw fouls and infuriate opponents. Beware the Tritons!
Sweeney: High Point Panthers
The Panthers have the most dynamic offense of any mid-major in the country and a roster that some high-majors would be jealous of. They’ve got speed, athleticism and shot-making in bunches and could cause some serious problems for Purdue in the first round.
Fischer: High Point Panthers
It’s easy to go with the Drake Bulldogs for their backstory, but in terms of watchability it is probably the High Point Panthers. They ripped through the Big South behind two senior guards (Kezza Giffa and D’Maurian Williams) and versatile wing Kimani Hamilton, sporting one of the best offenses in the East Regional. They’ve got a tough first-round matchup against the Purdue Boilermakers but could wind up going on a little run if they get past Braden Smith and company initially.
Wallach: UC San Diego Tritons
The Tritons have been a cash cow all season for bettors, a national best 25–7 against the number. The team plays a pleasing style of basketball, taking threes at a top-10 rate and hitting them at a top-60 clip while also rarely turning the ball over (seventh in the country in turnover percentage) and giving the opposing team fits with the second best turnover rate in the country. UCSD is fun to watch and has been dominating every team in its path, holding the nation’s longest winning streak at 15. Now, the entire country gets to see what’s been the most fun team in the mid-major ranks this season.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as March Madness Predictions: Title Picks, Dark Horses, Mid-Majors to Watch in Men’s NCAA Tournament.