NFL Playoff Picture, Week 17: Vikings, Lions Headed for Showdown Next Sunday

For the AFC, the playoff picture is starting to become quite clear.

On Wednesday, the Kansas City Chiefs handled the Pittsburgh Steelers and clinched the conference’s top seed. With that result along, with the Baltimore Ravens beating the Houston Texans, Baltimore now occupies the third seed, while Pittsburgh has slid to fifth.

Meanwhile, the NFC started to come into focus on Sunday. The Philadelphia Eagles clinched the second seed with a win over the Dallas Cowboys. The Los Angeles Rams claimed the NFC West via the strength of victory tiebreaker, with the Washington Commanders punching two tickets simultaneously with their win over the Atlanta Falcons.

Finally, the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings will play for the NFC North and home-field advantage in Week 18, while the Green Bay Packers will either be the sixth or seventh seed.

Let’s look at where everyone stands coming out of Week 17 action.

Additionally, all playoff probabilities are courtesy of The Athletic’s model.

AFC: WHO’S IN

No. 1: Kansas City Chiefs

Record: 15–1, first place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 100%

By beating the Steelers, the Chiefs locked up the AFC’s top seed for the fourth time in Patrick Mahomes’s career. With one postseason win, Kansas City would make its seventh consecutive AFC championship game appearance.

No. 2: Buffalo Bills

Record: 13–3, first place, AFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 0

Playoff probability: 100%

Buffalo clinched the second seed this weekend by beating the New York Jets at home. With the victory, the Bills will likely rest their starters in Week 18 against the New England Patriots.

No. 3: Baltimore Ravens

Record: 11–5, first place, AFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 0

Playoff probability: 100%

After beating the Texans, the Ravens are now in first place in the AFC North with one game remaining. If Baltimore wins at home next weekend against the Cleveland Browns, it will win the division.

No. 4: Houston Texans

Record: 9–7, first place, AFC South

Remaining opponents over .500: 0

Playoff probability: 100%

Houston is locked into the fourth seed and can now rest its starters in Week 18, using it as a de facto bye.

No. 5: Pittsburgh Steelers

Record: 10–6, second place, AFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 100%

Pittsburgh has now lost three consecutive games, sliding the Steelers into the wild-card portion of the AFC playoff picture. To win the division, Pittsburgh must beat the Cincinnati Bengals at Acrisure Stadium next weekend, and hope Baltimore loses at home to Cleveland.

No. 6: Los Angeles Chargers

Record: 10–6, second place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 0

Playoff probability: 100%

With a win Saturday over the New England Patriots, Los Angeles clinched a playoff spot for the second time in three years. With the victory and Denver’s loss, the Chargers also clinched at least the sixth seed.

No. 7: Denver Broncos

Record: 9–7, third place, AFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 1
Playoff probability: 63%

After losing to the Bengals, the Broncos now face a very easy playoff scenario. If they beat the second-string Chiefs on Sunday at Mile High, they’re in the playoffs.

IN THE HUNT

Miami Dolphins (8–8): Miami is still in play after beating the Browns. However, the Dolphins must now beat the Jets in Week 18 and get a loss from Denver in Week 18 to Kansas City..

Cincinnati Bengals (8–8): Cincinnati beat the Broncos in overtime on Saturday, keeping its hopes alive. Now, the Bengals must win at Pittsburgh in Week 18, and see the Dolphins and Broncos each lose at least one more time

NFC: WHO’S IN

No. 1: Detroit Lions

Record: 14–2, first place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 100%

The Lions won a meaningless game in San Francisco on Monday night while scoring 40 points in the process. Now, they come home on a short week to host the Vikings in a winner-take-all Week 18 showdown.

No. 2: Philadelphia Eagles

Record: 13–3, first place, NFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 0

Playoff probability: 100%

Philadelphia clinched the NFC East by beating up the Dallas Cowboys. The Eagles are now guaranteed of at least a second seed in the NFC playoffs, meaning a minimum of two playoff games should they advance.

No. 3: Los Angeles Rams

Record: 10–6, first place, NFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 100%

The Rams clinched the NFC West after wins be the Vikings and Commanders due to the strength of victory tiebreaker.

No. 4: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Record: 9–7, first place, NFC South

Remaining opponents over .500: 0

Playoff probability: 88%

The Buccaneers helped themselves in the playoff picture by beating the Panthers. Now, if the Commanders can beat the Falcons on Sunday night, they’ll lead the NFC South with one week left.

No. 5: Minnesota Vikings

Record: 14–2, second place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 100%

Minnesota beat Green Bay 27–25 on Sunday. With the win, they will set up a winner-take-all game in Week 18 against the Lions. The winner would be the NFC’s top seed, while the loser would be the fifth seed.

No. 6: Washington Commanders

Record: 11–5, second place, NFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 0

Playoff probability: 100%

With a victory over the Falcons, Washington is in the playoffs and sitting in the sixth seed. Washington will either be the sixth or seventh seed, depending on Week 18 results from itself and the Packers.

No. 7: Green Bay Packers

Record: 11–5, third place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 100%

After beating the New Orleans Saints on Monday night, the Packers have clinched a playoff berth. They can’t win the NFC North and are locked into the wild-card round.

IN THE HUNT

Atlanta Falcons (8–8): With a loss on Sunday night, Atlanta must now beat the Panthers next week while hoping for the Buccaneers to lose in Week 18 to the New Orleans Saints.