It’s been a rough stretch for incumbents globally. Name a country, we will show you an ousted world leader. In 2024, the citizenry in 70 countries—accounting for about half the world’s population—went to the polls and many voted out the ruling party.
But the Republic of Tennis often zigs where others zag. And in 2025, it’s hard to imagine much change at the top. Aryna Sabalenka comes to the Australian Open prepared to three-peat, after winning the previous major, the 2024 U.S. Open. She is the top seed on the women’s side.
Likewise, Jannik Sinner is the top men’s seed, the defending champ and the winner of the previous major. Torturing the analogy: There will be capable challengers and opposition candidates. Coco Gauff and Carlos Alcaraz are two names that spring to mind. But we’ll stick with the incumbents.
Here is our 2025 Aussie Open women’s preview and seed report:
Australian Open: The top 16 women
1. Aryna Sabalenka
The two-time defending champion—and winner of the previous major to boot—is the player to beat. One of the great recent tennis stories is the way she has lassoed her power and talent, and built margin into her game. Sabalenka doesn’t have to be playing her best to win.
2. Iga Świątek
The top player for the majority of the past three years can reclaim her penthouse. It will be interesting to see how she fares with a new coach, an upper leg that requires treatment, two consecutive losses to Gauff, and, maybe more crucially, inevitable questions about her recent doping ban.
3. Coco Gauff
It’s hard to pick against Sabalenka, but Gauff is also a strong contender to take it all. Coming off a season in which she won zero majors—and reached zero finals—but was still, in a way, a success. Propelled by her success at the WTA Finals, she looked terrific at the United Cup, not least on her technically improved forehand side.
4. Jasmine Paolini
Your periodic reminder that at this time last year, Paolini had never been beyond the second round of a major. Throughout 2024—a transformative one—she played deep into all four. Her joy expresses itself in her tennis. Realistically, at her height, it will be hard to win a major. But what a revelation.
5. Qinwen Zheng
Your 2024 Australian Open finalist won 30 of her last 35 matches of ’24 (including Olympic gold) to cap off a sensational year. Is Zheng a future major winner? Yes. Will it come at the major that has (unilaterally) declared itself the major encompassing the Asia-Pacific? Perhaps? This year? Why not?
6. Elena Rybakina
A mystery wrapped in an enigma swaddled in an ice vest. Rybakina was a finalist in 2023 and is one of those eye-test players who presents as a champion. She’s also been beset by a litany of vague injuries and illnesses. It’s a good sign that joyous Goran Ivanišević has joined the enterprise. A less good sign: Her (euphemism alert) embattled coach Stefano Vukov is back in the fold.
7. Jessica Pegula
She salvaged her 2024 with a strong end to the year, including her run to the final in a breakthrough U.S. Open.
8. Emma Navarro
For as often as we say, careers aren’t linear, hers has been a steady ascent. Not only is Navarro a top-10 player but one who has played deep (and beaten Gauff both times) in the past two majors. She faces a tough first-round matchup against Peyton Stearns.
9. Daria Kasatkina
In addition to her moral courage, Kasatkina’s tennis is commendable—angles, guile and pacing over power. Her style of play is fun for a few rounds but not ideal for making inroads against the sluggers. She has a losing career record (7–9) in Melbourne.
10. Danielle Collins
The former finalist didn’t expect to be playing in 2025. But here she is. Collins enters the Australian Open having lost her past six matches. But she’s always dangerous (especially on this surface) and a ferocious competitor.
11. Paula Badosa
The Comeback Player of the Year for 2024 looks to build on a season that saw her win almost 40 matches, and, better still, stay healthy.
12. Diana Shnaider
The piratical lefty broke through in Melbourne two years ago as a little-known teen. She is now 20 and in the top 20. Shnaider started the year with an early defeat in Brisbane, but that means she enters the Australian Open rested.
13. Anna Kalinskaya
It’s been a bit of a slow start to this season for Kalinskaya. A quarterfinalist in Australia last year—during her blazing start to the 2024 season—can she leave her heelprint at a major?
14. Mirra Andreeva
The only teenager in the top 100 is starting the season as a real contender. She is modest but intelligent and has already shown herself to be a major performer.
15. Beatriz Haddad-Maia
The Brazilian lefty is a bit of a mystery. The hard-hitting, tall player looks like a potential giant killer but slays few giants at majors.
16. Jelena Ostapenko
She has little in the way of momentum. But Ostapenko is always a dangerous figure and often an inhospitable opponent and, while lost a bit in the mists of time, she is a former major winner. Also, credit her for her underrated and winning doubles play.
Select seeds 17-32
19. Madison Keys
She is newly married and still a fearsome ball striker.
20. Karolina Muchová
A United Cup defeat to Świątek may douse some of the enthusiasm surrounding Muchová, but she’s such a fine player.
21. Victoria Azarenka
All former champions get a mention. (Yes, it was more than a full decade ago.)
23. Katie Boulter
Boulter is a solid player, especially against opponents she should beat. Newly affianced to an Aussie, she should be well-received by the crowds.
31. Maria Sakkari
A top-10 player for so long, perhaps dropping down 25 or so spots will, perversely, take some of the pressure off Sakkari.
Dark horse pasture
Belinda Bencic: She is back from maternity leave and looking strong early.
Amanda Anisimova: She is—to borrow from Katy Perry circa 2008—hot then cold, in then out, up then down. But Anisimova is always dangerous, and often in Australia.
Lulu Sun: Good for her on cracking the top 40. Trivia: Sun is the highest-ranked woman from the Antipodes.
Ons Jabeur: You heard it here first, the 30-year-old is your 2025 Comeback Player of the Year.
Stearns: Collina crawled so Peyton could walk? (Another unabashedly competitive former college player.)
Anhelina Kalinina: The athletic, former top-25 Ukrainian has looked strong to start the season.
Naomi Osaka: Świątek has won five majors, the most of any active player (save Venus Williams). Osaka is second with four majors. However, an abdominal injury she sustained last week at the Auckland Classic is a cause for concern.
Sofia Kenin: You know the rules by now. All former champions get name-checked.
First-round matches to watch
Sabalenka vs. Sloane Stephens: It’s not often that two major champions face off in the first round.
Gauff vs. Sofia Kenin: It’s not often that two major champions face off in the first round.
Osaka vs. Caroline Garcia: Two former top five players battle … to play Muchová?
Bencic vs. Ostapenko: Welcome to the tournament.
Navarro vs. Stearns: A battle of two recent NCAA champions.
Swiatek v. Kateřina Siniaková: Świątek should win but the veteran opponent won’t be intimidated.
Upset alert
Bencic d. Ostapenko
Doubles champ
For the sake of sentimentality, cancer survivor Gaby Dabrowski and (Antipodean/Alabama standout) Erin Routliffe take home the hardware.
Semis
Sabalenka d. Gauff
Keys d. Navarro (surprise d. shock)
Finals
Sabalenka d. Keys
This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2025 Australian Open Women’s Seed Report: Aryna Sabalenka Looks Tougher Than Ever.