Top Five Likely NFL Free-Agent Busts: Three Signings Could Haunt Seattle

2025 NFL Free-Agency Tracker: Grading Every Major Move

It wasn’t difficult to form a list for worst free-agent signings—the opposite problem when making the case for the best deals this year.

With minimal talent hitting the open market, many teams overpaid for aging stars and players coming off significant injuries (I’m looking at you, Seattle Seahawks). The New England Patriots, on the other hand, decided to bet big on a player who didn’t get enough opportunities as a spot starter throughout his rookie deal.

New Patriots defensive tackle Milton Williams was considered for this list because he was a rotational player who only played about 50% of the defensive snaps during his four seasons with the Philadelphia Eagles—and Jalen Carter won’t be on the field with him in New England.

But the more I thought about it, the more I understood why the Patriots handed Williams a whopping four-year, $104 million deal. Williams, 25, could be a player on the rise after a dominant postseason run and will now get to perform for a New England defense that got better this offseason with the additions of edge rusher Harold Landry III and cornerback Carlton Davis III. Mike Vrabel is the ideal coach to turn Williams into a consistent defensive enforcer.

The Carolina Panthers lost the Williams sweepstakes after the Patriots made a better last-minute offer. The Panthers pivoted by taking a chance on a different defensive tackle who played in Super Bowl LIX after averaging only 62% of the snaps for the season. But that one was too much to justify—more on that below.

I also had issues with the New Orleans Saints going back to their reckless ways of hurting their salary cap to retain a player who might not be worth the money. But I let the three-year, $51 million deal for Chase Young slide because he had a productive 2024 season.

All right, let’s get to the list before I criticize more free-agency deals. (Camryn Bynum, Aaron Banks and Aaron Jones didn’t crack the top five after lengthy consideration.)

5. Sam Darnold, QB, Seattle Seahawks

It’s hard to overlook Darnold’s disastrous back-to-back performances to end his breakout season on a whimper. His flaw of slowly reading defenses against pressure, which hurt him in stints with the New York Jets and Panthers, bit him at the worst time during the Minnesota Vikings’ Week 18 showdown against the Detroit Lions and the ugly wild-card loss against the Los Angeles Rams. The Vikings did a standout job of protecting Darnold after stud left tackle Christian Darrisaw was lost for the season in October, but it all came crashing down in the final two games.

Now, Darnold, 27, is joining a Seattle squad that hasn’t done much to help one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Sure, coach Mike Macdonald and new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak can play the quick game, with Darnold throwing to Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp. But what made Darnold’s 2024 season special in Minnesota was his ability to stretch the field with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Unless the Seahawks add a burner or a big-body wideout in the draft, Darnold is going to have to rely on lengthy drives, leading to more opportunities for opposing defenses to force him into killer mistakes.

But I wont knock this move too much because the Seahawks likely gave themselves a one-year out on Darnold’s three-year, $100.5 million. Also, they weren’t going to get far with Geno Smith, so we might as well see what they have in the younger, cheaper option coming off a dynamic season in Minnesota

4. Dan Moore Jr., OT, Tennessee Titans

On one hand, it’s not wise to criticize the scouting report of Titans offensive line coach Bill Callahan, one of the best at what he does. On the other hand, the Titans whiffed on several big contracts last offseason and the coaching staff struggled to get those acquisitions in ideal situations on game days.

Moore, 26, had four inconsistent seasons with the Pittsburgh Steelers, but the Titans are paying him $82 million because he knows how to stay available (66 career starts) and his highs outweigh the lows. It’s rarely a bad idea to take a chance on offensive tackles because there aren’t many quality players at the position, but the total value on his four-year contract suggests he’s in the same class as Trent Williams and Jordan Mailata. He’s not that kind of player, especially because he doesn’t excel in an area. He’s a solid player making too much money.

3. Tershawn Wharton, DT, Carolina Panthers

The Panthers saved plenty of money after being spurned by Williams, but they still overpaid for their second option. Wharton wasn’t as impactful with the Kansas City Chiefs as Williams was for the Eagles last season. Wharton did play more snaps, but he was still a rotational player who often benefited as a pass rusher playing next to Chris Jones.

Perhaps Carolina justified signing Wharton to a three-year, $54 million contract because he’ll get to play next to Derrick Brown. But Wharton could have trouble earning snaps with Shy Tuttle, Bobby Brown III and A’Shawn Robinson also on the roster. Maybe this deal won’t look as bad if Wharton racks up sacks as a playmaker in obvious passing situations. Wharton, 26, recorded a career-high 6.5 sacks during his final season in Kansas City.

2. Cooper Kupp, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Kupp hasn’t played more than 12 games in a season since capturing the triple crown in 2021. In the games he did play, Kupp appeared a step slower and seldom made impact plays as the No. 2 wide receiver behind Puka Nacua. The Rams partly released Kupp because his skill set was too similar to Nacua’s, leading them to sign Davante Adams as their X receiver.

But Kupp might run into the same problem in Seattle playing as the No. 2 wideout behind Smith-Njigba, who’s better suited playing closer to the line of scrimmage. Perhaps the Seahawks have different plans for Smith-Njigba after a breakout second season and decide to unleash him as more of a downfield threat now that DK Metcalf is playing for the Steelers. But that doesn’t mitigate the other risks with signing Kupp to a three-year, $45 million deal heading into his age-32 season.

Seattle might regret this deal if Kupp’s availability and production continues to decline. Kupp recorded 67 catches and 710 yards last season—his lowest yardage total since 2018.

1. DeMarcus Lawrence, edge, Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks’ signing of Kupp isn’t as risky as the three-year, $42 million deal for Lawrence, who’s coming off a Lisfranc injury. The former Cowboys edge rusher only played in four games last season, but he’s been on the decline for a few years now.

Lawrence, who’s heading into his age-33 season, was viewed as the Cowboys’ No. 2 edge rusher because of his pay checks, but Sam Williams and Dorance Armstrong (before leaving for the Washington Commanders) often fared better playing next to Micah Parsons. Lawrence was never a double-digit sack artist (reaching the feat only twice in 11 NFL seasons), but he consistently applied pressure against opposing quarterbacks. He might no longer do that well and could have trouble finding snaps in Macdonald’s defensive scheme.

Perhaps this partnership could work because Macdonald prefers to have depth at edge rusher, which he could have with Lawrence, Boye Mafe, Uchenna Nwosu and Derick Hall. But it’s a surprise Lawrence saw $42 million (only $18 million guaranteed) in the early stages of free agency and didn’t have to wait until well into the offseason to land with a new team.