The NFC is wide open and that could lead to many thrilling playoff games.
Over in the AFC, there’s a clear gap after the power trio of the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens. But in the NFC, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Green Bay Packers and/or Washington Commanders pull off upsets on wild-card weekend.
It took until Week 18 to have a team claim the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The Detroit Lions own the top seed after a massive victory over the Minnesota Vikings, but these two division rivals are good enough to advance and possibly meet for a third time in the postseason.
Also, we can’t forget about the high-flying Philadelphia Eagles, perhaps the most complete team in the NFC playoff field. But they could easily be knocked off by dangerous teams such as the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Perhaps we’ll get a better sense of which NFC team has the best chance of advancing to Super LIX by answering one big question for all seven playoff teams.
1. Detroit Lions: Will the defensive injuries lead to a short postseason?
The Lions’ Week 15 shootout loss vs. the Buffalo Bills appeared to be a sign of things to come, but defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn made the necessary adjustments to stifle the Vikings’ offense in Week 18. Detroit will open the postseason without its two best defensive players after the injuries to Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill.
The defense doesn’t have to be perfect, but it will need to generate more stops than it did against Josh Allen and the Bills, who punted only once in Detroit. Luckily for the Lions, they have an elite offense capable of winning most shootouts, even against the Eagles and Vikings. But those two NFC contenders have stout defenses that could contain Jared Goff and his offense, which will be without bruising running back David Montgomery to open the playoffs. Then again, Jahmyr Gibbs has flourished as the lead back, scoring four touchdowns against Minnesota in the regular-season finale.
Philadelphia has the secondary to lock down the Lions’ pass catchers and Minnesota has the pass rushers to frustrate Goff. But it’s hard to count out Dan Campbell’s gritty team, which gained plenty of postseason experience last season. If Glenn’s defense continues to play as well as it did Sunday night, the Lions have the pieces to play in their first ever Super Bowl.
2. Philadelphia Eagles: Will the passing game do enough to help Saquon Barkley?
Eagles coach Nick Sirianni wisely made the decision to rest Barkley in the regular-season finale against the New York Giants, prioritizing health over the single-season rushing record—Barkley fell 101 rushing yards short of breaking Eric Dickerson’s mark of 2,105 yards.
Barkley is too valuable to the Eagles. His presence is why they quickly fixed their issues from 2023 and are now in position to return to the Super Bowl for the second time in three years. And this team is better than the ’22 squad because of Barkley and a revamped secondary under defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.
But there have been too many times in which Barkley appeared to be a one-man team on offense during his first season in Philadelphia. There were long stretches where Jalen Hurts couldn’t establish a rhythm with his pass catchers, only to be bailed out by a dominant Barkley performance. The sluggish passing attack nearly cost them a game against the struggling Carolina Panthers, leading to A.J. Brown calling out the passing attack, which translated into Hurts needing to do better. Hurts responded by delivering one of his best performances of the season, recording 290 passing yards and three total touchdowns in a 27–13 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
But Hurts has missed most of the past three games due to a concussion sustained in the Week 16 loss to the Commanders. Hurts should be cleared for the start of the playoffs, but rust could lead to another sluggish outing for the passing game. Perhaps Barkley will be ready for another heavy workload after resting in Week 18.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Will the secondary issues hinder Baker Mayfield’s offense?
You could argue that health is all the Buccaneers need to advance to the Super Bowl. Early in the season, Tampa Bay beat both Detroit and Philadelphia.
But the Buccaneers were ravaged by injuries after a 4–2 start and suffered four consecutive losses. Thanks to the return of Mike Evans, the Buccaneers righted the ship and won six out of seven games to clinch the NFC South. No one will want to face the Buccaneers, especially with the way Baker Mayfield has played this season, perhaps the best football of his career.
But this talented team has a glaring hole in the secondary, a weakness that could quickly derail its Super Bowl hopes. The night the Buccaneers were routed by the Baltimore Ravens in Week 7, many focused on the injuries to Evans and Chris Godwin, overlooking the terrible performance from the secondary. Heading into Week 18, Tampa Bay had allowed 244.9 passing yards per game, fourth-worst in the NFL. This is the same secondary that allowed 509 passing yards to Kirk Cousins and the Atlanta Falcons during an overtime loss in Week 5.
It hasn’t helped that star safety Antoine Winfield Jr. has been dealing with a knee injury and has missed the final five games of the regular season. But coach Todd Bowles is capable of scheming productive defensive game plans to overcome this glaring weakness on the team.
4. Los Angeles Rams: Will the inconsistent offense be a problem in the playoffs?
Many were quick to label the Rams as a dangerous playoff team because of head coach Sean McVay, quarterback Matthew Stafford and star wide receiver Puka Nacua.
But it wouldn’t be a stretch to say the Rams should thank the defense for bailing out an inconsistent offense the past six weeks. Perhaps these dangerous Rams wouldn’t have been in the playoffs if it weren’t for Chris Shula’s defense holding the San Francisco 49ers, New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals to nine points or fewer from Weeks 15 to 17. Los Angeles’s offense averaged only 14.6 points in those three games.
The Rams’ offense did have one of the best offensive performances of the season, though. Los Angeles’s playoff hopes drastically increased after a 44–42 shootout victory over the Bills in Week 14. That win played a huge part in why the Rams were able to overcome a 1–4 start to the season. Stafford’s offense also stepped up in a Week 8 upset victory over the Vikings on Thursday Night Football.
But the Rams have had slow offensive starts throughout the season, evident from their 11 games without scoring a point in the first quarter. A scoreless first quarter in the playoffs could lead to a quick double-digit deficit against the explosive teams of the NFC.
If the Rams’ offense finds consistency soon, they have the roster to go far in the postseason. L.A. is loaded with pass rushers, with second-year standout Kobie Turner and Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite Jared Verse. And they certainly have the pieces on offense with Stafford, Nacua, Cooper Kupp and dynamic running back Kyren Williams. This team needs complete team performances to make noise in the postseason.
5. Minnesota Vikings: Can Sam Darnold deliver in the biggest moments in his first postseason?
The Darnold haters might be saying “I told you so” after his rocky performance against the Lions on Sunday night. He chose the wrong time to have one of his worst performances of the season.
But Darnold has shown he’s capable of stepping up in the biggest moments, with sensational performances throughout his breakout season with the Vikings. Darnold could have some jitters in his first playoff game, but he has the luxury of quickly calming down by throwing passes to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Darnold had the game-winning throw to Jefferson in Seattle and threw for a career-high 377 passing yards in the Week 17 battle with the Packers. It wouldn’t be surprising if Darnold delivers more dimes in his first postseason. Sure, he’s not as good as the elite quarterbacks in the AFC, but he’s been as good as Goff, Mayfield and Jayden Daniels when it comes to the best quarterbacks in the NFC this season. Darnold entered Week 18 with a 106.4 passer rating, fifth best in the league.
Darnold did have a sluggish four-game stretch, starting in Week 10, when he was forcing the ball to Jefferson. But Minnesota won all those games because this team has the playmakers on both sides of the ball to overcome a down day from Darnold. Perhaps the Eagles’ stifling secondary could give him fits. Even then, the Vikings have the pass rushers to frustrate Hurts to even the playing field, if this scenario were to occur in the postseason.
6. Washington Commanders: Will Daniels need to run more?
The Commanders could lean on Daniels’s athleticism more now that they’re in must-win situations. We saw that in the Week 17 victory over the Falcons, when Daniels tied a career high with 16 carries to help the Commanders clinch a playoff spot.
The last time Daniels had that many carries was in his regular-season starting debut. Daniels needed to run then to slow the game down during a blowout loss against the Buccaneers. That won’t be the case in the postseason after punishing teams downfield with his arm to become the heavy favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Wisely, the Commanders didn’t lean on Daniels’s athleticism throughout his rookie year to keep him healthy, which led to him becoming one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league with a 69.4 completion percentage. Daniels can certainly throw the ball downfield, but Washington needed more from him in the critical Week 17 victory. Daniels put his body on the line and allowed his defense, which has struggled at times this season, to rest on the sideline after he kept drives alive with his 127 rushing yards.
Having Daniels be more of a dual-threat quarterback could be an advantage for a team lacking depth on both sides of the ball. Daniels’s ability to keep plays alive has led to a career season for Terry McLaurin, but there’s not a lot of star power behind the team’s No. 1 wideout. Daniels made it work with a pass-catching group that includes tight end Zach Ertz and wide receiver Jamison Crowder—both have received game-winning throws from Daniels this season.
The Commanders are longshots to advance to the Super Bowl, but they’re going to have a chance with Daniels.
7. Green Bay Packers: Can Jordan Love elevate his game after a rocky regular season?
The answer might be no because Love failed to beat the best teams in the NFC, posting an 0–5 record against the Vikings, Lions and Eagles during the regular season. Love regressed in his second season and hasn’t returned to the dominant form he had in the second half of the 2023 season.
It wouldn’t be a stretch to say the Packers became too reliant on Josh Jacobs and the rushing attack, which could have hurt Love when it came to establishing a rhythm in games. Perhaps a pass-heavy approach could force Love to elevate his game, similar to last year when the Packers squeaked into the playoffs, knocked off the Dallas Cowboys in the wild-card round and put a scare into the San Francisco 49ers in the divisional round.
But last year, Green Bay had the element of surprise with a young roster and a first-year starting quarterback. Now teams know what to expect from Love, but maybe coach Matt LaFleur will stay committed to his formula of leaning on a productive running game with a talented defense. Sometimes less is more from young quarterbacks, but elite quarterback performances tend to win games in January. We saw that from Love last postseason, but that version has rarely shown up in 2024. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores dared Love to beat his defense and Love couldn’t do it in Week 17.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as One Big Question for Each of the Seven NFC Playoff Teams.