Opening Day (stateside version) is next Thursday. It’s the most hopeful time of year. The sky is blue, the canvas is blank and even the Chicago White Sox haven’t lost a game yet.
But the reality is Opening Day is full of questions, too. The Los Angeles Dodgers went to Opening Day last year with James Outman as their center fielder, Jason Heyward as their right fielder, Tyler Glasnow as their starting pitcher and Evan Phillips as their closer. None were on the roster when they won the World Series. Those players were essentially replaced by trade acquisitions Kike Hernández, Tommy Edman, Jack Flaherty and Michael Kopech.
The season is long, and it is fluid. The Dodgers used 60 players to get through the season, about average. In honor of the uncertainty, not just the hope, that defines Opening Day, here are 30 questions for 30 teams:
Los Angeles Dodgers
Will anybody throw 150 innings?
Last year Gavin Stone led the staff with 140.1 innings—until he blew out. The Dodgers have mastered the new pitching paradigm: Throw and spin the tar out of the baseball but do it with less exposure. That means Shohei Ohtani might not see a mound until June, Roki Sasaki will throw no more than 120 innings, Tyler Glasnow might barely exceed his career high of 134 innings (last year, until his elbow started barking), Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a 5-foot-10 righthander who hit 98 his first time out this season, should not exceed his 108.2 innings of last year by more than 30, and Blake Snell, who is 32 years old and has thrown just two qualified seasons, will get lots of abbreviated starts and extra rest. Here’s what the Dodgers know: If they get any three of that Fab Five to October healthy and with gas in the tank, nobody is beating them.
Philadelphia Phillies
Is this the end of their window?
J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber and Ranger Suárez are eligible for free agency after this season. The offense has five players in their age 32 or older season: Realmuto, 34, Nick Castellanos, 33, Bryce Harper, 32, Trea Turner, 31 and Schwarber, 32. None of the past 24 playoff teams have had more than three qualified hitters 32 and older. Since 1947, only two teams made the playoffs with five regulars that old: the 1982 Angels and 2007 Yankees.
New York Yankees
Does Aaron Judge have enough support without Juan Soto?
Job No. 1 for the Yankees is to get Judge pitches to hit. On pitches in the strike zone last year, Judge hit .361 and slugged a ridiculous .793. He saw a higher percentage of pitches in the zone than in any season of his career. Why? Juan Soto was on base all the time. The Yankees don’t have a certified leadoff hitter, and they need both former MVPs Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt to rediscover their power behind Judge to get the big guy pitches to hit.
Milwaukee Brewers
Is Jackson Chourio a 30–30 MVP candidate?
The outfielder looked a bit lost through the first week of June, hitting .209, including .141 against non-cutter fastballs. After that? How about an MVP type slash line of .306/.362/.525 and a .322 average against heaters. The kid is a fast learner with an ease in big moments beyond his 21 years.
San Diego Padres
Do they keep Dylan Cease all season?
The righthander, who turns 30 in December, is headed toward free agency and a Corbin Burnes-like contract ($210 million neighborhood). San Diego should be in the playoff hunt, but it may have to see what Cease can bring them at the trade deadline, even with tremendous fan support and working on a fourth straight winning season for only the second time in franchise history.
Cleveland Guardians
Do they have enough starting pitching?
It’s a question we’re not used to asking, given their success rate with pitching development. Last year they reached the players with a rotation that ranked 24th in MLB. This year, Gavin Williams is a huge key because he has the highest ceiling. Luis Ortiz, swiped from Pittsburgh in a trade, has quality stuff but needs to learn to get it in the zone more.
Baltimore Orioles
Is Adley Rutschman back?
The Baltimore catcher had one of the worst and sudden declines you will see from a great player. After two years with MVP votes and a 64-game start to last season that looked in line with his elite level (.306/.344/.490), Rutschman fell off a cliff over his last 87 games (.206/.299/.301). His exit velocity in that time cratered from 89.5 to 87.1.
Atlanta Braves
Are Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. as good as new?
Both stars are coming back from major injuries. You can talk free agency and trades all you want, but no team is adding a possible Cy Young Award winner and MVP the way the Braves are. Atlanta was a league-average offensive team last year, down from the No. 1 offense the previous season.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Does the bullpen bounce back?
The highest-scoring team in MLB missed the playoffs by a game last year. Losing Game 156 to Milwaukee after an 8–0 lead, including a 9–6 lead with two outs in the eighth inning with the bases empty, was the dagger. An inconsistent bullpen was one of the reasons. The Arizona bullpen ranked 25th in strikeout rate, 26th in ERA and 27th in WHIP. The D-Backs don’t have a named closer—that’s never a preference—and plan to spread the job among Justin Martinez, Kevin Ginkel, A.J. Puk and Joe Mantiply.
New York Mets
Do the Mets add a Game 1 starter?
Kodai Senga has Game 1 stuff but has a history of injuries. New York has rotational depth but not the kind that matches the rotations of the Dodgers, Braves and Phillies when it comes to elite, swing-and-miss stuff. The big prize is Sandy Alcántara, if the Marlins make him available.
Houston Astros
How does Jose Altuve take to left field?
Metrics and their unreliability aside, Altuve’s defense at second base must have been awful for the club to move a franchise player off his career-long position. He does not have a plus throwing arm, there is a learning curve to any position and at age 34 he will do more running. Still a premier offensive player, Altuve remains a vital part of Houston’s success.
Kansas City Royals
Can the rotation do it again?
Kansas City used an older-school rotation philosophy to forge its turnaround season. The Royals mostly kept their starters on the fifth day. They let them throw more pitches per start (91) than any team but the Yankees. Only the Mariners and Phillies had more quality starts.
Detroit Tigers
Is this the best pitching staff in baseball?
Last year only the Mariners and Braves posted a better ERA than Detroit. Now mix in Alex Cobb (once he’s healthy), welcome back Jack Flaherty and give the ball 20-25 times to Jackson Jobe, one of the most talented young pitchers in baseball, and the Tigers might be even better at run prevention.
Seattle Mariners
Is it time to make T-Mobile Park more hitter-friendly?
Here are the Mariners’ home slugging ranks over the past seven seasons, starting in 2018: 24, 24, 30, 30, 22, 24, 29. It’s not just the ballpark. Seattle has run through a ton of hitting coaches and philosophies while it wastes pennant-quality pitching.
St. Louis Cardinals
Which young players are part of the next winning Cardinals’ team?
It’s one thing to give playing time to young players. It’s another to figure out who can live up to the expectations. Masyn Winn looks like a fixture, but Dylan Carlson didn’t make it and the jury remains out on Nolan Gorman, Michael Siani, Victor Scott II, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson and Matthew Liberatore, all between 23 and 26.
Chicago Cubs
How much offense will they get from Pete Crow-Armstrong and Matt Shaw?
Crow-Armstrong posted an OPS+ of 88 in his rookie season, though his second half was more like the player who showed pop in the minors. The 5–9 Shaw showed good contact rates in the minors, but after an injury limited him to six spring training games, he will see a gauntlet of great pitching in his first month in MLB: the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Athletics, Padres, Rangers, Phillies and Pirates in the first 32 games.
Minnesota Twins
How many combined games for Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis?
Last year the trio made it into only 270 games, just 55% of the total available. All three are impact players. But Minnesota has not been able to count on their availability.
Boston Red Sox
Which prospects will make an impact?
Outfielder Roman Anthony, infielder/outfielder Kristian Campbell and infielder Marcelo Mayer are all knocking on the door. Each of them is likely to get some run during the season, if only because of injuries. Anthony and Campbell are most likely to force the Red Sox to give them more playing time.
Tampa Bay Rays
What effect will they experience with home games at an outdoor minor league ballpark?
The Rays have terrific behind-the-scenes facilities at George M. Steinbrenner Field, but their home schedule is front-loaded to avoid playing too much in the summer heat and rain, which makes the middle of the season a slog. In one stretch they play 35 of 47 games on the road. Their pitchers will miss the climate-controlled Trop.
San Francisco Giants
What do they get from Justin Verlander and Robbie Ray?
The two former Cy Young Award winners can make this rotation formidable if they stay healthy. Verlander, 42, is coming off a 5.48 ERA in 17 starts. Ray, 33, is coming off a 4.70 in seven starts. Both pitchers have flashed the stuff to think the ceiling is still high. But how many starts can the Giants count on from them?
Texas Rangers
Who has more volatility in their rotation?
Nobody. Workhorse Jon Gray already is out with a broken wrist. Cody Bradford has a sore elbow. Tommy John returnees Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahler haven’t pitched a full season in years. Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker are rookies with outstanding stuff that will need to be handled carefully. Nathan Eovaldi, 35, with two Tommy John surgeries, is their anchor.
Cincinnati Reds
What’s the ceiling for Elly De La Cruz?
He led the league in stolen bases last year while hitting 25 homers and posting a 119 OPS+. Great. He also struck out a league high 218 times. Not great. He struggles against spin (.190) and from the right side of the plate (.224). But he’s only 23 with good walk and chase rates, which means if he cuts down on his strikeout rate just a little, he’s looking at a monster season.
Pittsburgh Pirates
How many innings does Paul Skenes throw?
Last year the Pirates kept him on strict limits for the first two months. When he arrived in the big leagues, they never pitched him on the fifth day, electing always to give him that “extra” day. (“Extra” in quotes because for years now most MLB starts are made on the sixth day). This year, president of baseball operations Ben Cherington is not ruling out Skenes getting the ball on the fifth day sometimes. After Skenes threw 160.1 innings last year (including the minors), he should be good for up to 185 this year, something only 13 pitchers did last year.
Toronto Blue Jays
Does Vladimir Guerrero Jr. finish the year with the Jays?
Both sides are still interested in a deal that would make Guerrero a lifetime Blue Jay. But every day he gets closer to free agency, the closer he will be to discovering his true market value. As part of due diligence, Toronto at the trade deadline will have to explore what his value is on the trade market. But the Jays are not likely to be blown away. Look what the Orioles got for Manny Machado in 2018: Rylan Bannon, Yusniel Díaz, Dean Kremer, Zach Pop and Breyvic Valera. Total WAR for the Orioles from those five: 4.0.
Washington Nationals
How good are James Wood and Dylan Crews?
Wood, 22, impressively posted a .354 OBP and 122 OPS+ in 79 games last year. And when he learns to pull the ball—he had one home run to the pull side—look out. Crews has plenty of speed and gap power, with home run power to come.
Athletics
Does Lawrence Butler take another step forward?
Why not? He’s a former sixth-round pick who struck out 32% of the time in the minors in 2021. But he keeps getting better. Butler broke out in a big way in the second half last year: .300/.345/.553. It convinced the Athletics to lock him up to a seven-year, $65.5 million deal.
Los Angeles Angels
What if Mike Trout gets 500 plate appearances?
It hasn’t happened since 2019. He has done it eight times. Here are his MVP finishes in those eight seasons he has stayed healthy: first three times, second four times and fourth, his worst finish, once. Trout has become a big-time pull-side slugger in his 30s. A 40-homer season, or even matching his career high of 45, is possible if he stays healthy.
Miami Marlins
Should they trade Sandy Alcántara?
The righthander is making $17.3 million this year and next, with a 2027 option for $21 million, making him an affordable ace. That’s 20% of the Marlins’ luxury tax figure this season. There is no urgency to trade him. On days he is starting, the Marlins are a dangerous team. But as a Game 1 starter who can affect three pennant races, his trade value is sky high.
Colorado Rockies
Is Brenton Doyle an All-Star?
Count on it. His path is unusual: a fourth-round pick in 2019 out of D-II Shepherd University in West Virginia. But Doyle already has two Gold Gloves, a centerfield arm that has been clocked at 105 mph and a skill set that could make him a 30–30 player. Last year he filled the stat sheet with 90 singles, 24 doubles, four triples, 23 homers and 30 stolen bases. Only two other players did that: Shohei Ohtani and Bobby Witt Jr.
Chicago White Sox
How many games will the Sox lose?
It’s really, really hard to lose 121 games, as Chicago did last season. It’s the most since 1900. It was the first time in franchise history the White Sox had consecutive 100-loss seasons. That got me thinking: What happens to the worst teams the next year? The Sox are one of six teams since 1900 to lose 115 games. Of the previous five, the 1936 Braves improved the most (32 fewer losses; from 115 losses to 83), followed by the 2004 Tigers (-29 losses),1917 Athletics (-19), 1963 Mets (-9) and 2019 Orioles (-7). That works out to an average of 19 fewer losses. Last season was so bad for the Sox that a 60–102 season actually sounds like a major step forward.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Thirty Questions for Opening Day: What Can Make or Break Each MLB Team?.