TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — It could be an “extremely active” 2024 hurricane season, according to a long-range forecast from researchers at Colorado State University.
CSU released its projections 58 days out from the first day of the season. Changing climate patterns are expected to usher in a more favorable environment for tropical activity than in 2023.
Using models based on decades of climate trends, CSU researchers predict the Atlantic basin will see 23 named storms, 11 of those being hurricanes. Five of the hurricanes will be Category 3, 4, or 5, otherwise known as major hurricanes.
Researchers projected a “well above-average” chance for major hurricanes to make landfall along the continental U.S. and in the Caribbean.
Additionally, CSU predicts named storms will be present in the Atlantic for 115 days of the season, which includes 45 days of hurricanes and 15 major hurricane days.
Researchers urge everyone not to read too far into the initial forecast, as it is likely to change as we get closer to hurricane season. Last spring, CSU initially projected a below-average season and later updated the forecast to an above-average season.
The El Niño climate pattern is weakening, signaling a transition into a neutral pattern, and then La Niña. Despite being an above-average hurricane season, most tropical systems stayed well offshore of the Atlantic coast last year.
The weakening jet stream means less wind shear, creating a more favorable environment for storms to form this year. Higher ocean temperatures will help them intensify.
Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are at record levels and are expected to remain well above average during hurricane season. Ocean temperatures are currently about 2-3 degrees above average in the Atlantic and 1-2 degrees above average in the Gulf of Mexico.
Regardless of the long-range hurricane forecast, residents should get prepared ahead of hurricane season. Make an action plan with your family, gather essential supplies and make sure your home is prepared for a potential storm.
Not every storm will impact your area, but it only takes one to damage your home or put your family’s safety at risk.
Stay up to date with the latest news, weather and sports by downloading the WGNO app on the Apple or Google Play stores and by subscribing to the WGNO newsletter.
