As of 10am Central time, Danny no longer remained a tropical system and is now just a tropical wave traveling across the Caribbean. Danny’s quick demise, from tropical storm to remnant low in only 24 hours, can be attributed to the increased wind shear across the Caribbean thanks to a strengthening El Niño cycle in the Pacific. In addition to the wind shear, the Caribbean is also dominated by very dry air at the moment which is cutting off the moist, tropical air needed for a tropical system to develop or even maintain itself. Combined, these two features spelled doom for Danny. We will continue to monitor the remnant low over the next week as the Western Caribbean is slightly more favorable for tropical development if the trough of low pressure that was Danny can stay somewhat organized until then.
Meanwhile, farther east in the Atlantic, another tropical wave is showing signs of formation and could become a depression later today and eventually Tropical Storm Erika if development continues on. If it does form into a tropical system, it will have a tough time maintaining that status, as the system will enter the area of dry air and wind shear that ripped Danny apart in the upcoming week. So while the Atlantic season is becoming more active, the El Niño effects in the Caribbean are keeping the storms away for now; however we will continue to keep an eye on the tropics. (Jason Disharoon)
